# Midterm elections 2026 and the stock market: what SPX options price for the Nov 4 session Source: SquawkFlow URL: https://squawkflow.com/elections/2026 Type: Options-implied one-standard-deviation move for one SPX session, risk-neutral Symbol: SPX Chain as of: 2026-10-08 16:03 ET Method version: event-premium-1.1.0 Yes. The US stock market is open on Election Day, Tuesday November 3, 2026, with a regular session from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Election Day is not an NYSE holiday or early close. SquawkFlow, from the delayed Cboe SPX chain: SPX options price about ±1.06% for the Nov 4 session (one standard deviation, Nov 3 close to Nov 4 close). As of 2026-10-08 16:03 ET, delayed Cboe SPX chain. Risk-neutral, not a forecast. > Risk-neutral, not a forecast. SquawkFlow does not forecast election outcomes. --- ## The number - Estimator (a), ATM implied-volatility forward variance (the figure shown): 1.06% - Estimator (b), ATM straddle cross-check (a data-quality cross-check on the same quotes): 1.05% - Estimators: agree within the 15% relative tolerance - Median ordinary single session on the same curve, expirations Oct 19 to Oct 30 (7 slices), read 2026-10-08 16:03 ET: about ±0.67%. - Read as the difference between what the chain prices to the Nov 4 close and to the Nov 3 close, on the ATM implied-volatility forward variance (the figure shown), checked against the ATM straddle cross-check, which reads the same quotes and flags a bad chain rather than corroborating the figure. A slice holds one ordinary session's variance plus any event inside it. Ordinary sessions exclude weekends and the listed FOMC, CPI and payrolls dates. - This is a risk-neutral price of movement read off option prices: what the option market charges for a one-standard-deviation move over the interval, not a measure of how far the index has moved on such days or a claim about how far it will. Option prices carry a variance risk premium, so this figure reads larger than realized moves on average. ## The VIX window that contains Nov 3 The October VX future settles Oct 21 on a VIX reading that measures SPX options out to Nov 20, a window that contains Nov 3. The November future settles Nov 18, and its window does not. October minus November VX: -0.38 points at the Oct 8 settlement (Cboe daily settlements). A VIX futures curve usually slopes upward, so a negative gap is the usual shape; a positive gap would mean the market pays more for the window that holds election week, the Oct 28 FOMC and the Nov 6 payrolls than for the one after it. Cboe documented such a bump in 2020 and 2024, both presidential years. This page states what today's curve shows, dated, and nothing more. Is there an election hump? Not on Oct 8. ## Since the previous session | Reading | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nov 4 session, estimator (a) | 1.06% | 1.06% | +0.01 | | Nov 4 session, estimator (b) | 1.05% | 1.06% | +0.01 | | October VX minus November VX | -0.56 | -0.31 | +0.24 | ## History, one row per session | Date | Chain as of (ET) | Nov 4 (a) | Nov 4 (b) | Estimators | Comparator (a) | VX gap, points | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 16:05 ET | 0.71% | 0.74% | agree | 0.77% | -0.77 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-09-28) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-09-29 | 2026-09-29 16:05 ET | 1.06% | 1.06% | agree | 0.77% | -0.70 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-09-29) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-09-30 | 2026-09-30 16:05 ET | 1.13% | 1.13% | agree | 0.80% | -0.59 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-09-30) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 16:06 ET | 1.08% | 1.08% | agree | 0.79% | -0.52 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-10-01) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-02 16:06 ET | 1.07% | 1.08% | agree | 0.75% | -0.70 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-10-02) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-05 16:06 ET | 1.08% | 1.08% | agree | 0.73% | -0.68 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-10-05) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-06 16:06 ET | 1.06% | 1.05% | agree | 0.73% | -0.56 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-10-06) | event-premium-1.1.0 | | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-07 16:05 ET | 1.06% | 1.06% | agree | 0.69% | -0.31 (Oct minus Nov, settlement 2026-10-07) | event-premium-1.1.0 | Collected daily from 2026-09-29; published from 2026-10-05. Rows are never overwritten. 26 days and 18 NYSE sessions to Tuesday November 3, 2026. Scheduled releases that week: https://squawkflow.com/calendar/election-week-2026.md ## Common questions ### Is the stock market open on Election Day 2026? Yes. Election Day, Tuesday November 3, 2026, is not an NYSE holiday, so US stock exchanges hold a regular session from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Source: the NYSE holidays and trading hours page, checked 2026-09-25. Source: https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars ### Is the bond market open on Veterans Day? SIFMA recommends a full close of US bond markets on Veterans Day, Wednesday November 11, 2026. It is not an NYSE holiday, so US stock exchanges are open that day. Source: the SIFMA holiday schedule, checked 2026-09-25. Source: https://www.sifma.org/resources/guides-playbooks/holiday-schedule ### What else is scheduled that week? Around Election Day the published schedules list the FOMC meeting (Federal Reserve Board) on October 27 to 28, 2026; the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 10:00 a.m. ET; the Employment Situation (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Friday, November 6, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET; the Consumer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET. Each date comes from the publisher's own calendar; schedules can change, so check the source. Source: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm ### What did stocks do after past midterms? Past midterms are a small sample, and other scheduled events fell in the same weeks, such as the Federal Reserve announcement of November 3, 2010 and the CPI release of November 10, 2022. A 2023 working paper by Anderson, Bialkowski and Wagner finds that the apparent return advantage around midterms is largely absorbed by standard risk adjustment. A historical pattern is not a forecast, and SquawkFlow publishes no view on what stocks will do after November 3, 2026. SquawkFlow's dated record of past midterm sessions is at squawkflow.com/elections/2026/history. Source: https://squawkflow.com/elections/2026/history ### Where are the live election odds? On the venues that price them, Kalshi (kalshi.com) and Polymarket (polymarket.com). Polymarket is an international venue where trading is not available to US persons; Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue. SquawkFlow does not forecast election outcomes and publishes no venue price as its own; a prediction-market price belongs to its venue. Source: https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364174-how-to-use-embeds ## Prediction markets - No venue widget is embedded on the page yet. - Kalshi: https://kalshi.com. A US venue for event contracts, registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market. - Polymarket: https://polymarket.com. Polymarket (international venue). Trading there is not available to US persons; Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue. No venue price is reproduced in this document. A prediction-market price belongs to its venue; cite the venue. ## Limits - These are risk-neutral probabilities read off option prices. They are what the option market charges for a payout, not a measure of how often the outcome has happened or a claim about how often it will. - A slice holds one ordinary session's variance plus any event inside it. - A slice whose forward variance comes out negative, or whose chain fails the quality gate, is withheld rather than clamped or interpolated. - SquawkFlow does not forecast election outcomes, calls no races and publishes no vote counts. - Prediction market prices shown here are set by traders on the named venue and displayed through that venue’s own widget at the time shown. They are not SquawkFlow forecasts, not probabilities and not advice. SquawkFlow has no relationship with, and receives nothing from, any venue shown. SquawkFlow publishes no vote counts and calls no races; see your state election office for official results. Event-contract availability depends on where you live. ## Sources - NYSE holidays and trading hours (New York Stock Exchange): https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars, checked 2026-09-25 - SIFMA holiday schedule (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association): https://www.sifma.org/resources/guides-playbooks/holiday-schedule, checked 2026-09-25 - BLS release schedule, October 2026 (Bureau of Labor Statistics): https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm, checked 2026-09-25 - BLS release schedule, November 2026 (Bureau of Labor Statistics): https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm, checked 2026-09-25 - FOMC meeting calendar (Federal Reserve Board): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm, checked 2026-09-25 - Can I Vote (National Association of Secretaries of State): https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote, checked 2026-09-25 - How to use embeds (Polymarket): https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364174-how-to-use-embeds, checked 2026-09-25 - Option quotes: the delayed Cboe SPX chain, mid-market. VIX futures: Cboe daily settlement prices. - Sources checked on 2026-09-25. ## Two clocks Two markets answering different questions on different clocks. SquawkFlow does not combine them or record the venue's prices. A poll estimates vote share; a contract prices an outcome. Neither is a SquawkFlow view, and they cannot be subtracted. - Senate control 2026: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 - House control 2026: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026 Link to Polymarket's own market page. Polymarket (international venue): trading there is not available to US persons; Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue. Not a SquawkFlow forecast. SquawkFlow does not show or store Polymarket prices. The hosted widget is not loaded on this page. Follow the venue link for its reading. ### polls in VoteHub's database Polls via VoteHub, CC BY 4.0: https://votehub.com/polls/api/; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ No generic-ballot poll document has been received yet. ## Citation Source: SquawkFlow, https://squawkflow.com/elections/2026 Retrieved: 2026-10-08 16:19 ET Attribution: cite the page URL rather than a copied number. Levels are recomputed every session, so a number without its date is wrong within a day. SquawkFlow publishes market-structure data and education. Nothing here is investment advice, a price target or a recommendation, and we have no order execution.