# FOMC October 2026: Oct 28 Decision Time and Fed Day Move

URL: https://squawkflow.com/fomc/2026-10
Retrieved: 2026-10-18 21:37 ET

- Oct 28, 2:00 p.m. ET: FOMC statement time, Federal Reserve calendar; press conference 2:30 p.m. ET
- ±1.03%: SPX one sd move for the Fed session alone (2026-10-27 close to 2026-10-28 close), as of Oct 16, 2026, 04:14 PM ET, last good reading
- ±2.16% / ±166.8 pts: SPX one sd move to the Oct 28 close, covers 8 sessions, as of Oct 16, 16:14 ET
- December 8 to 9: Next FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve calendar

## When is the October 2026 FOMC meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27 to 28, 2026. The Federal Reserve October 2026 calendar lists the meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Both Federal Reserve pages were rechecked on 2026-10-18.
Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm. Next meeting: December 8 to 9, 2026.
Calendar file: https://squawkflow.com/calendar/cpi-fomc-2026.ics

## How much do options price for Fed day?

SPX options price about ±1.03% (one standard deviation) for the Fed session alone, the 2026-10-27 close to the 2026-10-28 close, as of Oct 16, 2026, 04:14 PM ET, delayed Cboe SPX chain. ATM straddle cross-check: about ±1.03%. Risk-neutral, not a forecast. Last good reading, with its original as-of.

Read as the difference between what the chain prices to the Oct 28 close and to the Oct 27 close, on the ATM implied-volatility forward variance, sqrt(sigma_b^2 T_b - sigma_a^2 T_a). A one-session slice holds one ordinary session’s variance plus the event inside it. The figure to the decision below is a different measurement: it covers every session from the reading to Oct 28.

To the decision: SPX ±2.16% (±166.8 points) to the Oct 28 close, as of Oct 16, 16:14 ET. Every window: https://squawkflow.com/expected-move/spx

## Fed decision days in 2026

History, not a forecast: through the September 16, 2026 meeting, the S&P 500 had declined on six consecutive Fed decision days, the second-longest such run in records going back to 1994; the longest was seven, Chair Powell's first seven meetings, in 2018. Source: Bespoke Investment Group, published September 17, 2026, not SquawkFlow's computation.

## Earnings scheduled for October 28, 2026

Company-announced report dates and calls on the decision day. Release timing is shown only when the company stated it.

- [ADP earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/ADP): before the open.
- [ALGN earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/ALGN): after the close.
- [BIIB earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/BIIB): before the open.
- [CMG earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/CMG): after the close.
- [GOOGL earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/GOOGL): earnings call 4:30 p.m. ET; release time unstated.
- [MSFT earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/MSFT): after the close.
- [NOW earnings](https://squawkflow.com/earnings/NOW): after the close.


## The S&P 500 on past scheduled Fed decision days

On the 261 scheduled Fed decision days from Feb 4, 1994 through Sep 16, 2026, the S&P 500's median close-to-close move was 0.64%, larger than the 0.53% median across all 8,228 sessions from Feb 4, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026.
It closed higher on 142 of the 261 (54.4%), against 53.9% of all sessions.
It moved more than 1% either way on 33.0% of them, against 26.5% of all sessions.
In 2026, through Sep 16, 2026, it closed lower on 6 of the 6 scheduled Fed decision days, the smallest move -0.01% on Jan 28 (small sample, 6 days).

SquawkFlow's computation on Oct 17, 2026: S&P 500 index closes from Cboe, scheduled Fed decision days from the Federal Reserve Board, each move from the prior session's close to the event day's close. Every scheduled Fed decision day in the span is listed below. Meeting dates are set in advance by the Federal Reserve Board, not chosen by price, and each row measures one session's move, so no row is dropped for being close to another (closest pair: 23 sessions apart). The median comparison word follows a permutation check (10,000 random same-size samples). History, not a forecast.

| Scheduled Fed decision day | S&P 500 close to close |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -0.45% |
| 2026-07-29 | -1.52% |
| 2026-06-17 | -1.21% |
| 2026-04-29 | -0.04% |
| 2026-03-18 | -1.36% |
| 2026-01-28 | -0.01% |
| 2025-12-10 | +0.67% |
| 2025-10-29 | 0.00% |
| 2025-09-17 | -0.10% |
| 2025-07-30 | -0.12% |
| 2025-06-18 | -0.03% |
| 2025-05-07 | +0.43% |
| 2025-03-19 | +1.08% |
| 2025-01-29 | -0.47% |
| 2024-12-18 | -2.95% |
| 2024-11-07 | +0.74% |
| 2024-09-18 | -0.29% |
| 2024-07-31 | +1.58% |
| 2024-06-12 | +0.85% |
| 2024-05-01 | -0.34% |
| 2024-03-20 | +0.89% |
| 2024-01-31 | -1.61% |
| 2023-12-13 | +1.37% |
| 2023-11-01 | +1.05% |
| 2023-09-20 | -0.94% |
| 2023-07-26 | -0.02% |
| 2023-06-14 | +0.08% |
| 2023-05-03 | -0.70% |
| 2023-03-22 | -1.65% |
| 2023-02-01 | +1.05% |
| 2022-12-14 | -0.61% |
| 2022-11-02 | -2.50% |
| 2022-09-21 | -1.71% |
| 2022-07-27 | +2.62% |
| 2022-06-15 | +1.46% |
| 2022-05-04 | +2.99% |
| 2022-03-16 | +2.24% |
| 2022-01-26 | -0.15% |
| 2021-12-15 | +1.63% |
| 2021-11-03 | +0.65% |
| 2021-09-22 | +0.95% |
| 2021-07-28 | -0.02% |
| 2021-06-16 | -0.54% |
| 2021-04-28 | -0.08% |
| 2021-03-17 | +0.29% |
| 2021-01-27 | -2.57% |
| 2020-12-16 | +0.18% |
| 2020-11-05 | +1.95% |
| 2020-09-16 | -0.46% |
| 2020-07-29 | +1.24% |
| 2020-06-10 | -0.53% |
| 2020-04-29 | +2.66% |
| 2020-01-29 | -0.09% |
| 2019-12-11 | +0.29% |
| 2019-10-30 | +0.33% |
| 2019-09-18 | +0.03% |
| 2019-07-31 | -1.09% |
| 2019-06-19 | +0.30% |
| 2019-05-01 | -0.75% |
| 2019-03-20 | -0.29% |
| 2019-01-30 | +1.55% |
| 2018-12-19 | -1.54% |
| 2018-11-08 | -0.25% |
| 2018-09-26 | -0.33% |
| 2018-08-01 | -0.10% |
| 2018-06-13 | -0.40% |
| 2018-05-02 | -0.72% |
| 2018-03-21 | -0.18% |
| 2018-01-31 | +0.05% |
| 2017-12-13 | -0.05% |
| 2017-11-01 | +0.16% |
| 2017-09-20 | +0.06% |
| 2017-07-26 | +0.03% |
| 2017-06-14 | -0.10% |
| 2017-05-03 | -0.13% |
| 2017-03-15 | +0.84% |
| 2017-02-01 | +0.03% |
| 2016-12-14 | -0.81% |
| 2016-11-02 | -0.65% |
| 2016-09-21 | +1.09% |
| 2016-07-27 | -0.12% |
| 2016-06-15 | -0.18% |
| 2016-04-27 | +0.16% |
| 2016-03-16 | +0.56% |
| 2016-01-27 | -1.09% |
| 2015-12-16 | +1.45% |
| 2015-10-28 | +1.18% |
| 2015-09-17 | -0.26% |
| 2015-07-29 | +0.73% |
| 2015-06-17 | +0.20% |
| 2015-04-29 | -0.37% |
| 2015-03-18 | +1.22% |
| 2015-01-28 | -1.35% |
| 2014-12-17 | +2.04% |
| 2014-10-29 | -0.14% |
| 2014-09-17 | +0.13% |
| 2014-07-30 | +0.01% |
| 2014-06-18 | +0.77% |
| 2014-04-30 | +0.30% |
| 2014-03-19 | -0.61% |
| 2014-01-29 | -1.02% |
| 2013-12-18 | +1.66% |
| 2013-10-30 | -0.49% |
| 2013-09-18 | +1.22% |
| 2013-07-31 | -0.01% |
| 2013-06-19 | -1.39% |
| 2013-05-01 | -0.93% |
| 2013-03-20 | +0.67% |
| 2013-01-30 | -0.39% |
| 2012-12-12 | +0.04% |
| 2012-10-24 | -0.31% |
| 2012-09-13 | +1.63% |
| 2012-08-01 | -0.29% |
| 2012-06-20 | -0.17% |
| 2012-04-25 | +1.36% |
| 2012-03-13 | +1.81% |
| 2012-01-25 | +0.87% |
| 2011-12-13 | -0.87% |
| 2011-11-02 | +1.61% |
| 2011-09-21 | -2.94% |
| 2011-08-09 | +4.74% |
| 2011-06-22 | -0.65% |
| 2011-04-27 | +0.62% |
| 2011-03-15 | -1.12% |
| 2011-01-26 | +0.42% |
| 2010-12-14 | +0.09% |
| 2010-11-03 | +0.37% |
| 2010-09-21 | -0.26% |
| 2010-08-10 | -0.60% |
| 2010-06-23 | -0.30% |
| 2010-04-28 | +0.65% |
| 2010-03-16 | +0.78% |
| 2010-01-27 | +0.49% |
| 2009-12-16 | +0.11% |
| 2009-11-04 | +0.10% |
| 2009-09-23 | -1.01% |
| 2009-08-12 | +1.15% |
| 2009-06-24 | +0.65% |
| 2009-04-29 | +2.16% |
| 2009-03-18 | +2.09% |
| 2009-01-28 | +3.36% |
| 2008-12-16 | +5.14% |
| 2008-10-29 | -1.11% |
| 2008-09-16 | +1.75% |
| 2008-08-05 | +2.87% |
| 2008-06-25 | +0.58% |
| 2008-04-30 | -0.38% |
| 2008-03-18 | +4.24% |
| 2008-01-30 | -0.48% |
| 2007-12-11 | -2.53% |
| 2007-10-31 | +1.20% |
| 2007-09-18 | +2.92% |
| 2007-08-07 | +0.62% |
| 2007-06-28 | -0.04% |
| 2007-05-09 | +0.32% |
| 2007-03-21 | +1.71% |
| 2007-01-31 | +0.66% |
| 2006-12-12 | -0.10% |
| 2006-10-25 | +0.35% |
| 2006-09-20 | +0.52% |
| 2006-08-08 | -0.34% |
| 2006-06-29 | +2.16% |
| 2006-05-10 | -0.17% |
| 2006-03-28 | -0.64% |
| 2006-01-31 | -0.40% |
| 2005-12-13 | +0.56% |
| 2005-11-01 | -0.35% |
| 2005-09-20 | -0.79% |
| 2005-08-09 | +0.67% |
| 2005-06-30 | -0.71% |
| 2005-05-03 | -0.09% |
| 2005-03-22 | -1.02% |
| 2005-02-02 | +0.32% |
| 2004-12-14 | +0.39% |
| 2004-11-10 | -0.10% |
| 2004-09-21 | +0.63% |
| 2004-08-10 | +1.30% |
| 2004-06-30 | +0.41% |
| 2004-05-04 | +0.18% |
| 2004-03-16 | +0.56% |
| 2004-01-28 | -1.36% |
| 2003-12-09 | -0.85% |
| 2003-10-28 | +1.52% |
| 2003-09-16 | +1.43% |
| 2003-08-12 | +1.00% |
| 2003-06-25 | -0.83% |
| 2003-05-06 | +0.85% |
| 2003-03-18 | +0.42% |
| 2003-01-29 | +0.68% |
| 2002-12-10 | +1.40% |
| 2002-11-06 | +0.91% |
| 2002-09-24 | -1.73% |
| 2002-08-13 | -2.17% |
| 2002-06-26 | -0.27% |
| 2002-05-07 | -0.30% |
| 2002-03-19 | +0.41% |
| 2002-01-30 | +1.17% |
| 2001-12-11 | -0.28% |
| 2001-11-06 | +1.45% |
| 2001-10-02 | +1.23% |
| 2001-08-21 | -1.21% |
| 2001-06-27 | -0.47% |
| 2001-05-15 | +0.04% |
| 2001-03-20 | -2.41% |
| 2001-01-31 | -0.56% |
| 2000-12-19 | -1.30% |
| 2000-11-15 | +0.50% |
| 2000-10-03 | -0.68% |
| 2000-08-22 | -0.09% |
| 2000-06-28 | +0.29% |
| 2000-05-16 | +0.94% |
| 2000-03-21 | +2.56% |
| 2000-02-02 | -0.01% |
| 1999-12-21 | +1.08% |
| 1999-11-16 | +1.82% |
| 1999-10-05 | -0.25% |
| 1999-08-24 | +0.24% |
| 1999-06-30 | +1.57% |
| 1999-05-18 | -0.46% |
| 1999-03-30 | -0.72% |
| 1999-02-03 | +0.80% |
| 1998-12-22 | +0.06% |
| 1998-11-17 | +0.30% |
| 1998-09-29 | +0.03% |
| 1998-08-18 | +1.62% |
| 1998-07-01 | +1.30% |
| 1998-05-19 | +0.33% |
| 1998-03-31 | +0.75% |
| 1998-02-04 | +0.09% |
| 1997-12-16 | +0.48% |
| 1997-11-12 | -1.93% |
| 1997-09-30 | -0.64% |
| 1997-08-19 | +1.48% |
| 1997-07-02 | +1.46% |
| 1997-05-20 | +1.01% |
| 1997-03-25 | -0.23% |
| 1997-02-05 | -1.41% |
| 1996-12-17 | +0.70% |
| 1996-11-13 | +0.22% |
| 1996-09-24 | -0.13% |
| 1996-08-20 | -0.13% |
| 1996-07-03 | -0.18% |
| 1996-05-21 | -0.06% |
| 1996-03-26 | +0.45% |
| 1996-01-31 | +0.93% |
| 1995-12-19 | +0.84% |
| 1995-11-15 | +0.79% |
| 1995-09-26 | -0.07% |
| 1995-08-22 | +0.25% |
| 1995-07-06 | +1.23% |
| 1995-05-23 | +0.94% |
| 1995-03-28 | +0.14% |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.00% |
| 1994-12-20 | -0.18% |
| 1994-11-15 | -0.22% |
| 1994-09-27 | +0.27% |
| 1994-08-16 | +0.82% |
| 1994-07-06 | -0.05% |
| 1994-05-17 | +1.10% |
| 1994-03-22 | +0.06% |
| 1994-02-04 | -2.27% |

Dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. Closes: https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/daily_prices/SPX_History.csv.

## Related

- FOMC meeting, October 28, 2026: event page: https://squawkflow.com/calendar/fomc-meeting-october-2026
- Market calendar: https://squawkflow.com/calendar
- Election Center 2026: https://squawkflow.com/elections/2026

## Citation

Source: SquawkFlow, https://squawkflow.com/fomc/2026-10
Retrieved: 2026-10-18 21:37 ET
Attribution: cite the page URL rather than a copied number. Levels are
recomputed every session, so a number without its date is wrong within a day.

SquawkFlow publishes market-structure data and education. Nothing here is
investment advice, a price target or a recommendation, and we have no order
execution.