# VIX Term Structure: Contango vs Backwardation on One Page Source: https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure Retrieved: 2026-10-17T16:08:08.335Z Uploaded: 2026-10-16 Duration: 5:32 Topic: Volatility Video file: https://storage.googleapis.com/squawkflow-videos/vix-term-structure/vix-term-structure-ee4d8ec3.mp4 Captions: https://storage.googleapis.com/squawkflow-videos/vix-term-structure/captions-c2e88175.vtt Read the VIX futures curve on one page: contango, backwardation, nine dated Cboe settlements, and why expiration dates are read, not computed. AI voice. AI voice: the narration is a synthetic voice reading a script SquawkFlow wrote. Educational only, not investment advice. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation to trade. ## Chapters - 0:00 Nine contracts, one line (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=0) - 0:49 Two shapes (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=49) - 1:36 Reading the dated curve (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=96) - 2:10 Dates are read, not computed (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=130) - 3:00 One contract, one window (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=180) - 4:26 What the curve is not (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=266) - 5:02 Wrap (https://squawkflow.com/videos/vix-term-structure?t=302) ## Related - Explainer: https://squawkflow.com/learn/vix-term-structure-explained - Tool page: https://squawkflow.com/vix-term-structure ## Transcript # VIX Term Structure: Contango vs Backwardation on One Page Narration: AI voice. ### Nine contracts, one line Nine numbers, one line. This is the VIX futures curve on SquawkFlow: nine monthly VX contracts, each with its expiration date and its Cboe daily settlement, in VIX points. The settlement date on this capture: October 15, 2026. Start with what each row is. The VIX itself measures expected thirty-day volatility for the S&P 500, derived from option prices. A VX future is a price set today on the VIX reading at one future settlement. So every row is a price on one future reading of that index. Line the rows up from the nearest expiration to the furthest and you have the term structure. ### Two shapes Two shapes to know. First, the curve slopes up: each later contract settles above the one before it. That is contango. The learn page calls it the normal state of the VIX futures market, and gives the reason: uncertainty grows with time. The further out the reading, the more unknown risk it has to carry. Second, the curve slopes down: the front contracts settle above the back. That is backwardation. The learn page ties it to periods of elevated fear and market stress, when the near term is priced above the months that follow. Same nine rows, opposite slope. The shape is the first thing to read. ### Reading the dated curve Now the dated curve. Front contract, expiring October 21, 2026: 17.42. Back contract, expiring June 16, 2027: 20.60. Read along the points and each one sits above the one before it. Front to back, the curve rises. That is the contango shape, and the page labels it so. It describes one settlement, on one date. The next settlement can draw a different line. ### Dates are read, not computed Where do those expiration dates come from? Cboe's pattern: a standard monthly VIX expiration is the Wednesday thirty days before the third Friday of the following calendar month. Useful, but it breaks. Cboe lists the May 2027 expiration on Tuesday, May eighteenth, 2027, a day earlier than the pattern gives, around the Juneteenth holiday. So the calendar page reads every VIX date off a Cboe document instead of computing it. The next one it lists: Wednesday, October twenty-first, 2026, for the October contract. Check the curve and you see the same exception: the May point is dated the eighteenth, a Tuesday. ### One contract, one window Why the dates matter: each contract settles on one VIX reading, and that reading looks thirty days ahead. The page works one example. Election Day is Tuesday, November third. The October contract settles October twenty-first, on a VIX that measures a window including November third. The November contract settles November eighteenth, and its window does not. So the page compares those two neighbours. October minus November: negative 0.50 points, at the October 15, 2026 settlement. In the page's words, the window containing November third settled below the window that follows it. The Election Center page adds the context. A VIX futures curve usually slopes upward, so a negative gap is the usual sign. Cboe documented an election bump in 2020 and in 2024, both presidential years. And the same window holds the October twenty-eighth FOMC and the November sixth payrolls report, plus ordinary sessions. So the gap does not isolate the election, and it is not a forecast. The page states what today's curve shows, dated, and nothing more. ### What the curve is not Four limits. One: these are daily settlements, dated, not a running quote. Two: the page shows futures settlements, not the spot index. Spot VIX is not on it. Three: futures settlements include risk premium, so a contract's price is not a clean read of expected volatility. Four, in the page's own words: the curve is not a forecast that spot VIX reaches these levels. A back contract settling above the front does not say the index gets there. ### Wrap So: read the shape first. Up the curve is contango, the usual shape; front above back is backwardation. Read expiration dates off Cboe, never off the rule. Know which window a contract measures before you read meaning into a gap. And keep the settlement date beside every number. The definitions are on the learn page linked below. Educational only. Full write-up with sources: [/learn/vix-term-structure-explained](/learn/vix-term-structure-explained) Educational content, not investment advice. Levels shown are as captured on 2026-10-16 01:56 ET; they are not current.