What the VIX futures curve measures
Each point is the official settlement price of a monthly VIX futures contract. The curve shows how much volatility the market prices at different horizons. It is not a forecast that spot VIX must equal; futures reflect expected settlement values, risk premium, hedging demand, and time to expiration.
Contango versus backwardation
In contango, later contracts trade above the front month. This is the usual shape in calmer markets and produces roll drag for products that continually sell a cheaper expiring future and buy a more expensive later one. In backwardation, near-term contracts trade above the back of the curve, a shape associated with acute stress and high near-term hedging demand.
How to use the spread and percentile
The M9 minus M1 spread captures the full displayed curve. The same-contract percentile takes the two contracts that are M1 and M2 today and ranks the slope between them against those same two contracts' own shared history. For most of that history they sat further out the curve, where adjacent spreads run flatter, so it reads high and is not a rank against past front-month slopes. A high value means these two contracts are further apart than they usually were; it does not mean the front of the curve is at its steepest.
Data timing
This page uses official CBOE daily settlement files, not an intraday quote-table scrape. CBOE normally publishes the completed settlement data on the following trading day. That makes the curve reliable for regime context and end-of-day research, but not suitable for intraday execution.
COMMON QUESTIONS
- What is VIX futures contango?
- Contango means later VIX futures are priced above nearer contracts, which is the common calm-market shape and creates negative roll yield for long-volatility products.
- What is VIX futures backwardation?
- Backwardation means near VIX futures are priced above later contracts, usually indicating acute near-term stress that the market expects to ease.
- When is this curve updated?
- The public curve uses official CBOE daily settlement prices, which normally become available the following trading day.