What the VIX futures curve measures
Each point is the official settlement price of a monthly VIX futures contract. The curve shows how much volatility the market prices at different horizons. It is not a forecast that spot VIX must equal; futures reflect expected settlement values, risk premium, hedging demand, and time to expiration.
Contango versus backwardation
In contango, later contracts trade above the front month. This is the usual shape in calmer markets and produces roll drag for products that continually sell a cheaper expiring future and buy a more expensive later one. In backwardation, near-term contracts trade above the back of the curve, a shape associated with acute stress and high near-term hedging demand.
How to use the spread and percentile
The M9 minus M1 spread captures the full displayed curve. The slope percentile uses M1 versus M2 because adjacent front contracts provide a more comparable historical signal. A high percentile means the current contango slope is steep relative to overlapping observations for those same contracts; a low percentile means the curve is unusually flat or inverted.
Data timing
This page uses official CBOE daily settlement files, not an intraday quote-table scrape. CBOE normally publishes the completed settlement data on the following trading day. That makes the curve reliable for regime context and end-of-day research, but not suitable for intraday execution.