Are these real trades?

No. Every record on this page is paper trading. The engines produce simulated entries and exits against live market data, no orders are placed, no money is at risk, and SquawkFlow holds no broker credentials and has no order execution of any kind.

Why publish losing trades?

Because a record that only shows winners is not a record. Every trade an engine produced appears here regardless of outcome, and there is no filter on this page that can hide one. An engine whose sample is too small to say anything about is shown with its sample size and its verdict rather than quietly left out.

What does "insufficient sample" mean?

It means the number exists but the sample behind it is too small to publish. Rates, ratios and averages are withheld below ten observations and the page says "insufficient sample" explicitly rather than showing a blank or a dash, both of which read as missing data instead of a deliberate refusal. Counts and the individual trade records are never withheld: those are facts, not estimates.

Why does each engine show two sets of numbers?

Because the research measures each engine over two periods and reports both. One book covers a recent window, the other covers the engine’s whole history, and they are separate measurements of different samples. Showing them side by side means you can see for yourself whether they agree. Two books that agree are evidence a single headline number would have hidden, and two that disagree are the reason an engine can end up with no claim made about it at all. Nothing on this page averages them or picks the better-looking one.

What is a split verdict?

It means two measurement windows disagree about the same engine, and the research pipeline has declined to claim a result in either direction until they agree. It is not a middling score and it is not a soft pass. The verdict states both readings and both sample sizes, and this page reproduces it in full rather than quoting whichever window happens to look better. A page that resolved that disagreement on the reader’s behalf would be inventing a conclusion the research did not reach.

Where do the verdict words come from?

From the research pipeline itself, not from this page. Each engine is judged in one place and the resulting verdict is quoted here exactly as it was written, including verdict words this page has never rendered before. Nothing here rewords a verdict, ranks one above another, or hides one it does not recognise.

Why are live results and backtest results reported separately?

They are different populations and merging them would misstate both. A live sample of five sessions and an out-of-sample backtest of 157 sessions is not a sample of 162. Each is labelled and carries its own count, and nothing on this page adds them together.

What does the vote do?

It records whether a reader found the record itself useful to see, not whether the trade was a good idea. Votes are unverified and not linked to your identity, they are not a rating of the strategy, and they never influence how the engines run or what gets published.

How often does this update?

The record is regenerated after the afternoon runs and again in the evening on trading days. The absolute age of the published data is shown at the top of the page on every load, so you can see how fresh the record is rather than assuming.

What is the pre-registration ledger?

It is an append-only list of the documents that fixed a study’s method before the study ran, each recorded by the SHA-256 hash of its contents and linked to the previous entry by hash. Editing, reordering or removing any entry changes that entry’s hash and breaks every entry after it. The page publishes a one-line command that recomputes the whole chain from the public API, so the claim can be checked rather than believed.

What does the ledger not prove?

It does not prove when an entry was written, because the timestamp in each entry is written by us and is not attested by anyone else. It does not prove the list is complete, because a shorter chain still verifies. And it says nothing about whether a study turned out well: it records what was committed to in advance, not the result. The entries seeded when the ledger was created are labelled retrospective, since those documents were frozen before the ledger existed and their entry timestamps are ledger time rather than freeze time.

Is any of this advice?

No. This page describes what a set of research engines did in simulation. It contains no recommendations, no price targets and no suggestion that anyone should take any position. SquawkFlow publishes market-structure data and education and has no order execution.

The Lab: paper trading records, published in full

Every simulated trade our research engines produced, winners and losers alike, with the sample size behind every number and the verdict on every engine. Nothing here is filtered by outcome. Free, no signup.

As of 2026-10-25, SquawkFlow publishes 268 paper trade records from 3 research engines in the Lab. Losing and unresolved records are included, and engines whose sample is too small to publish a rate for are shown with that sample size rather than omitted.

Generated 2026-10-25 20:40 ET · data age 9h 20m · Machine-readable version.

READ OF THIS RECORD

This page lists 268 paper records from 3 engines. Every record is simulated, no orders were placed, and no money was at risk.
215 of the 268 records are graded and 53 are not. Every terminal outcome stays in the denominator, including the stopped ones, and nothing is filtered by result.
SPXMAN v2 has 144 records on a live-paper basis.
Its rolling window shows a profit factor of 1.01 on n=65.
Its all-time book shows a profit factor of 1.13 on n=114.
The elimination review's verdict for SPXMAN v2 is SPLIT: window says OPTIMIZE (PF 1.01 on n=65), all-time says KEEP (PF 1.13 on n=114): the books disagree, so no claim either way until they agree
Tripwire has 30 records on a live-paper basis.
Its rolling window shows a profit factor of insufficient sample (n=6 of 15).
Its all-time book shows a profit factor of 0.94 on n=27.
The elimination review's verdict for Tripwire is SPLIT: window says INSUFFICIENT (PF withheld on n=6 of 15), all-time says OPTIMIZE (PF 0.94 on n=27): the books disagree, so no claim either way until they agree
Convexity Harvester has 94 records on a live-paper basis.
Its rolling window shows a profit factor of 1.04 on n=53.
Its all-time book shows a profit factor of 1.04 on n=53.
The elimination review's verdict for Convexity Harvester is OPTIMIZE: PF 1.04 on n=53: marginal, commission an improvement study
The underlying files were generated at 2026-10-25T17:40:02-07:00, which is 9 hours and 20 minutes before this page was built.

Composed from the numbers on this page, not opinion. Descriptive only, never advice.

Engines

Each engine publishes two measurement books over different periods, shown side by side so you can see whether they agree before you read a word of the verdict. Rates are withheld below a small sample and say so, in the publisher’s own words where it gave a reason; counts and the trade records themselves are never withheld. Every engine states its own basis, because they do not all mean the same thing by a result. Verdicts are quoted exactly as the research pipeline wrote them, and where the books disagree the verdict says so and claims neither.

all-status: every terminal status stays in the denominator, including stopped. n counts every signal emitted, n_resolved every signal with a graded return.

spxman_v2.entry_ts not recorded: the v2 ledger timestamps the signal and the exit, and the model entry is struck at signal_ts
spxman_v2.scale_outs not recorded: the v2 ledger books one exit per signal, with no partial exits
tripwire.entry_ts not recorded: same ledger shape as spxman_v2, entry is struck at signal_ts
tripwire.scale_outs not recorded as events: the engine sold half the position at +50% model premium and held the rest to the 15:55 ET flat (20 of 27 resolved rows), but the ledger stored only the portion-weighted P&L, not the half-sale mark or time. pnl_pct is scored on that stored cash flow (since 2026-10-17)
tripwire.strikes not recorded: the tripwire ledger prices a model call and books no legs
spxman_v2.exit_ts recorded in US/Eastern wall clock while signal_ts is UTC, so the two are not on the same clock. Do not subtract them to get a holding period.
tripwire.exit_ts recorded in US/Eastern wall clock while signal_ts is UTC, so the two are not on the same clock. Do not subtract them to get a holding period.
harvester.pnl not recorded: the harvester grades in premium return percent and books no dollar P&L, so pnl_pct is the only realized figure
harvester.pnl_unit not applicable where pnl is not recorded
runner_version null on rows written before the engine stamped a runner version. Read null as pre-versioned, not as the current runner and not as a version of its own.

SPXMAN v2
spxman_v2LIVE-PAPER
Defined-risk 0DTE SPX vertical and condor signals, graded against model premium marks with no broker fill.
WINDOWn = 66
65 resolved
PROFIT FACTOR1.01 (n=65)
WIN RATE46.2% (n=65)
MEAN PNL %0.2% (n=65)
ALL TIMEn = 144
114 resolved
PROFIT FACTOR1.13 (n=114)
WIN RATE48.2% (n=114)
MEAN PNL %2.9% (n=114)
SPLITVERDICT
window says OPTIMIZE (PF 1.01 on n=65), all-time says KEEP (PF 1.13 on n=114): the books disagree, so no claim either way until they agree
144 records exported, 144 inside the verdict scope · thresholds: n_floor=15, pf_kill=0.75, pf_optimize=1.05, window_days=63
loss 22 · stopped 59 · win 63
Tripwire
tripwireLIVE-PAPER
Single-name level-cross momentum signals priced off a model call premium, including the roll variant.
WINDOWn = 9 of 15
6 resolved
PROFIT FACTORnot enough data yet (n=6 of 15)
WIN RATEnot enough data yet (n=6 of 15)
MEAN PNL %not enough data yet (n=6 of 15)
ALL TIMEn = 30
27 resolved
PROFIT FACTOR0.94 (n=27)
WIN RATE40.7% (n=27)
MEAN PNL %-1.8% (n=27)
SPLITVERDICT
window says INSUFFICIENT (PF withheld on n=6 of 15), all-time says OPTIMIZE (PF 0.94 on n=27): the books disagree, so no claim either way until they agree
30 records exported, 30 inside the verdict scope · thresholds: n_floor=15, pf_kill=0.75, pf_optimize=1.05, window_days=63
expired 3 · loss 16 · win 11
Convexity Harvester
harvesterLIVE-PAPER
Paper runner for the distilled 0DTE convexity rule, graded off real quoted option mids under a frozen scale-out exit plan.
WINDOWn = 64
53 resolved
PROFIT FACTOR1.04 (n=53)
WIN RATE60.4% (n=53)
MEAN PNL %1% (n=53)
ALL TIMEn = 64
53 resolved
PROFIT FACTOR1.04 (n=53)
WIN RATE60.4% (n=53)
MEAN PNL %1% (n=53)
OPTIMIZEVERDICT
PF 1.04 on n=53: marginal, commission an improvement study
94 records exported, 64 inside the verdict scope · thresholds: n_floor=15, pf_kill=0.75, pf_optimize=1.05, window_days=63
loss 35 · ungraded 20 · win 39
30 of 94 exported trades are outside the verdict scope: they were produced by a runner version the current one supersedes, which could not observe what it does. They stay in the record and out of the published statistics.

Paper trade records

Every record the engines produced, newest first. There is no filter on this list, by outcome or otherwise: open, closed, winning and losing records all appear. Each row is labelled PAPER because each row is simulated. Times are US Eastern.

PAPERSPX call_vertical
aa5744ae3ed9f545
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,645 / 7,655
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$95.00 (+26.03%)
SIGNAL2026-10-23 10:01 ET
EXIT2026-10-23 10:46 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
76a10368a70b30a6
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,700 / 7,710
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$170.00 (-51.52%)
SIGNAL2026-10-22 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-22 10:28 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
2ddfb58ff3983bbf
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,740 / 7,750
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$182.50 (-50.69%)
SIGNAL2026-10-21 10:00 ET
EXIT2026-10-21 10:16 ET
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PAPERSPY long_call
bb9937cace9c5e10
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES768
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+31.67%
SIGNAL2026-10-20 10:00 ET
EXIT2026-10-20 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
31a242d59e389bf6
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,700 / 7,710
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$230.00 (+64.79%)
SIGNAL2026-10-20 09:49 ET
EXIT2026-10-20 10:01 ET
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PAPERSPY long_call
33f0e32b2f9efc8f
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES769
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+0.71%
SIGNAL2026-10-19 10:15 ET
EXIT2026-10-19 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
0b8cf92cff49b41c
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,685 / 7,695
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$182.50 (-52.14%)
SIGNAL2026-10-16 13:03 ET
EXIT2026-10-16 13:16 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
0c3bf0f7a2d67761
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,745 / 7,755
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$187.50 (-52.08%)
SIGNAL2026-10-16 09:56 ET
EXIT2026-10-16 11:09 ET
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PAPERSPY long_call
c700f5c5365b7b37
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES770
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+48.74%
SIGNAL2026-10-15 11:00 ET
EXIT2026-10-15 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
19841fd1b8c2f8e2
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,715 / 7,725
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$210.00 (+63.64%)
SIGNAL2026-10-15 10:10 ET
EXIT2026-10-15 11:00 ET
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
aedd03c354a98ce2
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,670 / 7,660
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$180.00 (-50.00%)
SIGNAL2026-10-15 09:56 ET
EXIT2026-10-15 10:10 ET
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
f27235ddae2412f9
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,750 / 7,740
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$170.00 (+53.13%)
SIGNAL2026-10-14 10:05 ET
EXIT2026-10-14 11:05 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
5527a9c867d702f3
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,780 / 7,790
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$180.00 (-54.55%)
SIGNAL2026-10-14 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-14 10:12 ET
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
967bd4a8059a046a
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,810 / 7,800
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$285.00 (+73.08%)
SIGNAL2026-10-13 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-13 10:54 ET
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PAPERSPY long_call
d341a96a0b2369f1
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES779
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-94.21%
SIGNAL2026-10-13 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-13 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
3313ba1b6fac5928
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,805 / 7,795
STATUSloss
PAPER PNL-$107.50 (-34.68%)
SIGNAL2026-10-12 10:31 ET
EXIT2026-10-12 11:17 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
fc05caf262f09777
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,810 / 7,820
STATUSloss
PAPER PNL-$20.00 (-5.59%)
SIGNAL2026-10-12 10:08 ET
EXIT2026-10-12 11:38 ET
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PAPERSPY long_call
a380859c594eed74
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES777
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+83.21%
SIGNAL2026-10-09 10:20 ET
EXIT2026-10-09 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
915c3efac0d8458d
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,790 / 7,780
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$192.50 (-54.23%)
SIGNAL2026-10-09 10:16 ET
EXIT2026-10-09 11:18 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
409fdd40cf799ec4
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,790 / 7,800
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$245.00 (+71.01%)
SIGNAL2026-10-09 10:05 ET
EXIT2026-10-09 10:56 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
593ad063c6259cd0
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,785 / 7,795
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$90.00 (+24.00%)
SIGNAL2026-10-08 10:00 ET
EXIT2026-10-08 10:45 ET
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
35ffff0aafc34a6e
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,780 / 7,770
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$105.00 (+29.58%)
SIGNAL2026-10-08 09:58 ET
EXIT2026-10-08 11:29 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
d48bb3fa8ba62898
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,785 / 7,795
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$182.50 (-50.69%)
SIGNAL2026-10-07 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-07 10:48 ET
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PAPERAMD long_call
7474b419ad0f91cc
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES650
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+27.93%
SIGNAL2026-10-06 10:35 ET
EXIT2026-10-06 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERMU long_call
6f56073b842979b6
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES1,070
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-73.63%
SIGNAL2026-10-06 10:00 ET
EXIT2026-10-06 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
dc9478e0428b2f8f
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,815 / 7,805
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$162.50 (-50.78%)
SIGNAL2026-10-06 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-06 10:57 ET
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PAPERCOIN long_call
284345a4f5c01127
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKESnot recorded
STATUSnot recorded
PAPER PNLunresolved
SIGNAL2026-10-06 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-06 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
UNGRADEDno_listed_contract
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PAPERSPY long_call
36c987a20813d8e0
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES780
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+1.61%
SIGNAL2026-10-06 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-06 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERHOOD long_call
57c673f012e16f2d
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKESnot recorded
STATUSnot recorded
PAPER PNLunresolved
SIGNAL2026-10-05 10:10 ET
EXIT2026-10-05 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
UNGRADEDno_listed_contract
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
2d9ee08d3f430102
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,730 / 7,720
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$180.00 (-52.17%)
SIGNAL2026-10-05 09:56 ET
EXIT2026-10-05 10:15 ET
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PAPERCOIN long_call
faabea826aecfde2
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKESnot recorded
STATUSnot recorded
PAPER PNLunresolved
SIGNAL2026-10-05 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-05 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
UNGRADEDno_listed_contract
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PAPERSNDK long_call
a9a246f067f54b10
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKESnot recorded
STATUSnot recorded
PAPER PNLunresolved
SIGNAL2026-10-05 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-05 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
UNGRADEDno_listed_contract
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PAPERSPY long_call
cb9538fb2f656cd5
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES771
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+122.43%
SIGNAL2026-10-05 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-05 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
a3fa00ee8d44710d
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,725 / 7,715
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$175.00 (-50.72%)
SIGNAL2026-10-02 09:58 ET
EXIT2026-10-02 10:24 ET
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PAPERAMD long_call
888d946f75277412
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES637.5
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+0.49%
SIGNAL2026-10-02 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-02 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERHOOD long_call
0c41c54d6ede0a16
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES117
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+0.68%
SIGNAL2026-10-02 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-02 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPY long_call
698bea231e15f88c
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES772
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-97.89%
SIGNAL2026-10-02 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-10-02 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERCOIN long_call
66440d960bcafcac
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES192.5
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-36.11%
SIGNAL2026-10-01 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-01 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERHOOD long_call
4d4e85ae4c5d7a83
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES113
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-59.48%
SIGNAL2026-10-01 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-01 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSNDK long_call
87e9bb1ea986eeaf
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES1,755
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+46.10%
SIGNAL2026-10-01 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-10-01 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
6a05f2784026b49a
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,650 / 7,640
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$245.00 (+67.12%)
SIGNAL2026-10-01 09:49 ET
EXIT2026-10-01 10:05 ET
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PAPERMU long_call
9c9af5d7b07792c5
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES1,077.5
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-11.80%
SIGNAL2026-09-30 10:50 ET
EXIT2026-09-30 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
eb5dd56827ac44b3
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,700 / 7,690
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$200.00 (-54.05%)
SIGNAL2026-09-30 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-09-30 10:53 ET
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PAPERSNDK long_call
db04fa66a3e3af57
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES1,735
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+0.51%
SIGNAL2026-09-30 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-09-30 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPY long_call
0db9c136237b98b8
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES768
STATUSwin (W)
PAPER PNL+0.48%
SIGNAL2026-09-30 09:50 ET
EXIT2026-09-30 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
600714336d2cb78b
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,690 / 7,700
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$200.00 (-54.05%)
SIGNAL2026-09-29 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-09-29 11:13 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
a7f9274676d209ff
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,715 / 7,725
STATUSstopped
PAPER PNL-$192.50 (-52.03%)
SIGNAL2026-09-28 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-09-28 10:39 ET
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PAPERSPX call_vertical
ba46bdc0faff8d31
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONcall_vertical
STRIKES7,710 / 7,720
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$275.00 (+77.46%)
SIGNAL2026-09-25 10:05 ET
EXIT2026-09-25 11:02 ET
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PAPERSPX put_vertical
aa5b774037d1fb94
ENGINEspxman_v2
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONput_vertical
STRIKES7,730 / 7,720
STATUSwin
PAPER PNL+$295.00 (+77.63%)
SIGNAL2026-09-25 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-09-25 10:04 ET
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PAPERAMD long_call
bca0b5b5285c992a
ENGINEharvester
BASISlive-paper
DIRECTIONlong
STRIKES640
STATUSloss (L)
PAPER PNL-99.57%
SIGNAL2026-09-25 09:55 ET
EXIT2026-09-25 16:05 ET
RUNNERr2-full-window-poll
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Paper and simulated results. No order in this record was filled with real money. This is not advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer. Past performance does not predict future results. NFA.

Range forecasts

Published forecast bands and, once graded, whether each band actually held. Live and backtest samples are reported separately and are never combined.

Published range forecasts by session
SESSION	REFERENCE CLOSE	BAND	LOW	HIGH	HELD
2026-08-19 · morning	7,691.76	50%	7,640.39	7,743.13	no
		80%	7,610.99	7,772.53	yes
		95%	7,571.49	7,812.03	yes
2026-08-20 · morning	7,707.98	50%	7,659.26	7,756.7	no
		80%	7,631.37	7,784.59	yes
		95%	7,593.92	7,822.04	yes
2026-08-20 (preliminary) · nightly	7,707.98	50%	7,659.26	7,756.7	no
		80%	7,631.37	7,784.59	yes
		95%	7,593.92	7,822.04	yes
2026-08-21 · morning	7,641.16	50%	7,588.42	7,693.9	no
		80%	7,558.24	7,724.08	yes
		95%	7,517.69	7,764.63	yes
2026-08-21 (preliminary) · nightly	7,641.16	50%	7,588.42	7,693.9	no
		80%	7,558.24	7,724.08	yes
		95%	7,517.69	7,764.63	yes
2026-08-24 · morning	7,674.37	50%	7,622.86	7,725.88	yes
		80%	7,593.38	7,755.36	yes
		95%	7,553.78	7,794.96	yes
2026-08-24 (preliminary) · nightly	7,674.37	50%	7,622.86	7,725.88	yes
		80%	7,593.38	7,755.36	yes
		95%	7,553.78	7,794.96	yes
2026-08-25 · morning	7,652.86	50%	7,598.79	7,706.93	yes
		80%	7,567.84	7,737.88	yes
		95%	7,526.27	7,779.45	yes
2026-08-25 (preliminary) · nightly	7,652.86	50%	7,598.79	7,706.93	yes
		80%	7,567.84	7,737.88	yes
		95%	7,526.27	7,779.45	yes
2026-08-26 · morning	7,677.28	50%	7,625.83	7,728.73	yes
		80%	7,596.39	7,758.17	yes
		95%	7,556.83	7,797.73	yes
2026-08-26 (preliminary) · nightly	7,677.28	50%	7,625.83	7,728.73	yes
		80%	7,596.39	7,758.17	yes
		95%	7,556.83	7,797.73	yes
2026-08-27 · morning	7,675.7	50%	7,626.73	7,724.67	no
		80%	7,598.7	7,752.7	yes
		95%	7,561.05	7,790.35	yes
2026-08-27 (preliminary) · nightly	7,675.7	50%	7,626.73	7,724.67	no
		80%	7,598.7	7,752.7	yes
		95%	7,561.05	7,790.35	yes
2026-08-28 · morning	7,730.99	50%	7,684.15	7,777.83	yes
		80%	7,657.35	7,804.63	yes
		95%	7,621.34	7,840.64	yes
2026-08-28 (preliminary) · nightly	7,730.99	50%	7,684.15	7,777.83	yes
		80%	7,657.35	7,804.63	yes
		95%	7,621.34	7,840.64	yes
2026-08-31 · morning	7,711.76	50%	7,666.19	7,757.33	no
		80%	7,640.12	7,783.4	yes
		95%	7,605.08	7,818.44	yes
2026-08-31 (preliminary) · nightly	7,711.76	50%	7,666.19	7,757.33	no
		80%	7,640.12	7,783.4	yes
		95%	7,605.08	7,818.44	yes
2026-09-01 · morning	7,686.14	50%	7,637.95	7,734.33	no
		80%	7,610.38	7,761.9	yes
		95%	7,573.33	7,798.95	yes
2026-09-01 (preliminary) · nightly	7,686.14	50%	7,637.95	7,734.33	no
		80%	7,610.38	7,761.9	yes
		95%	7,573.33	7,798.95	yes
2026-09-02 · morning	7,631.47	50%	7,575.16	7,687.78	yes
		80%	7,542.93	7,720.01	yes
		95%	7,499.64	7,763.3	yes
2026-09-02 (preliminary) · nightly	7,631.47	50%	7,575.16	7,687.78	yes
		80%	7,542.93	7,720.01	yes
		95%	7,499.64	7,763.3	yes
2026-09-03 · morning	7,666.6	50%	7,612.78	7,720.42	no
		80%	7,581.99	7,751.21	no
		95%	7,540.61	7,792.59	yes
2026-09-03 (preliminary) · nightly	7,666.6	50%	7,612.78	7,720.42	no
		80%	7,581.99	7,751.21	no
		95%	7,540.61	7,792.59	yes
2026-09-04 · morning	7,747.71	50%	7,696.02	7,799.4	yes
		80%	7,666.44	7,828.98	yes
		95%	7,626.7	7,868.72	yes
2026-09-08 · morning	7,718.6	50%	7,666.14	7,771.07	yes
		80%	7,636.11	7,801.09	yes
		95%	7,595.78	7,841.42	yes
2026-09-08 (preliminary) · nightly	7,718.6	50%	7,666.14	7,771.07	yes
		80%	7,636.11	7,801.09	yes
		95%	7,595.78	7,841.42	yes
2026-09-09 · morning	7,673.52	50%	7,616.4	7,730.64	yes
		80%	7,583.72	7,763.32	yes
		95%	7,539.81	7,807.23	yes
2026-09-09 (preliminary) · nightly	7,673.52	50%	7,616.4	7,730.64	yes
		80%	7,583.72	7,763.32	yes
		95%	7,539.81	7,807.23	yes
2026-09-10 · morning	7,636.36	50%	7,577.95	7,694.77	yes
		80%	7,544.53	7,728.19	yes
		95%	7,499.62	7,773.09	yes
2026-09-10 (preliminary) · nightly	7,636.36	50%	7,577.95	7,694.77	yes
		80%	7,544.53	7,728.19	yes
		95%	7,499.62	7,773.09	yes
2026-09-11 · morning	7,591.7	50%	7,527.75	7,655.65	no
		80%	7,491.16	7,692.24	yes
		95%	7,442	7,741.4	yes
2026-09-11 (preliminary) · nightly	7,591.7	50%	7,527.75	7,655.65	no
		80%	7,491.16	7,692.24	yes
		95%	7,442	7,741.4	yes
2026-09-14 · morning	7,656.98	50%	7,600.97	7,712.99	no
		80%	7,568.93	7,745.03	yes
		95%	7,525.87	7,788.09	yes
2026-09-14 (preliminary) · nightly	7,656.98	50%	7,600.97	7,712.99	no
		80%	7,568.93	7,745.03	yes
		95%	7,525.87	7,788.09	yes
2026-09-15 · morning	7,619.98	50%	7,558.03	7,681.93	yes
		80%	7,522.59	7,717.37	yes
		95%	7,474.96	7,765	yes
2026-09-15 (preliminary) · nightly	7,619.98	50%	7,558.03	7,681.93	yes
		80%	7,522.59	7,717.37	yes
		95%	7,474.96	7,765	yes
2026-09-16 · morning	7,585.73	50%	7,523.9	7,647.56	no
		80%	7,488.51	7,682.95	yes
		95%	7,440.98	7,730.48	yes
2026-09-16 (preliminary) · nightly	7,585.73	50%	7,523.9	7,647.56	no
		80%	7,488.51	7,682.95	yes
		95%	7,440.98	7,730.48	yes
2026-09-17 · morning	7,551.81	50%	7,486.64	7,616.98	no
		80%	7,449.35	7,654.27	yes
		95%	7,399.25	7,704.37	yes
2026-09-17 (preliminary) · nightly	7,551.81	50%	7,486.64	7,616.98	no
		80%	7,449.35	7,654.27	yes
		95%	7,399.25	7,704.37	yes
2026-09-18 · morning	7,637.76	50%	7,579.81	7,695.71	yes
		80%	7,546.66	7,728.86	yes
		95%	7,502.11	7,773.41	yes
2026-09-18 (preliminary) · nightly	7,637.76	50%	7,579.81	7,695.71	yes
		80%	7,546.66	7,728.86	yes
		95%	7,502.11	7,773.41	yes
2026-09-21 · morning	7,650.5	50%	7,597.54	7,703.46	no
		80%	7,567.23	7,733.77	no
		95%	7,526.51	7,774.49	no
2026-09-21 (preliminary) · nightly	7,650.5	50%	7,597.54	7,703.46	no
		80%	7,567.23	7,733.77	no
		95%	7,526.51	7,774.49	no
2026-09-22 · morning	7,764.7	50%	7,708.18	7,821.22	yes
		80%	7,675.84	7,853.56	yes
		95%	7,632.39	7,897.01	yes
2026-09-22 (preliminary) · nightly	7,764.7	50%	7,708.18	7,821.22	yes
		80%	7,675.84	7,853.56	yes
		95%	7,632.39	7,897.01	yes
2026-09-23 (preliminary) · nightly	7,764.64	50%	7,712.12	7,817.16	no
		80%	7,682.07	7,847.21	yes
		95%	7,641.69	7,887.59	yes
2026-09-24 · morning	7,706.03	50%	7,647.87	7,764.19	yes
		80%	7,614.6	7,797.46	yes
		95%	7,569.89	7,842.17	yes
2026-09-24 (preliminary) · nightly	7,706.03	50%	7,647.87	7,764.19	yes
		80%	7,614.6	7,797.46	yes
		95%	7,569.89	7,842.17	yes
2026-09-25 · morning	7,704.13	50%	7,645.42	7,762.84	yes
		80%	7,611.82	7,796.44	yes
		95%	7,566.69	7,841.57	yes
2026-09-25 (preliminary) · nightly	7,704.13	50%	7,645.42	7,762.84	yes
		80%	7,611.82	7,796.44	yes
		95%	7,566.69	7,841.57	yes
2026-09-28 · morning	7,743.41	50%	7,690.39	7,796.43	no
		80%	7,660.04	7,826.78	yes
		95%	7,619.28	7,867.54	yes
2026-09-28 (preliminary) · nightly	7,743.41	50%	7,690.39	7,796.43	no
		80%	7,660.04	7,826.78	yes
		95%	7,619.28	7,867.54	yes
2026-09-29 · morning	7,683.69	50%	7,629.3	7,738.08	yes
		80%	7,598.18	7,769.2	yes
		95%	7,556.36	7,811.02	yes
2026-09-29 (preliminary) · nightly	7,683.69	50%	7,629.3	7,738.08	yes
		80%	7,598.18	7,769.2	yes
		95%	7,556.36	7,811.02	yes
2026-09-30 · morning	7,670.84	50%	7,615.84	7,725.84	yes
		80%	7,584.37	7,757.31	yes
		95%	7,542.09	7,799.59	yes
2026-09-30 (preliminary) · nightly	7,670.84	50%	7,615.84	7,725.84	yes
		80%	7,584.37	7,757.31	yes
		95%	7,542.09	7,799.59	yes
2026-10-01 · morning	7,651.54	50%	7,596.42	7,706.66	yes
		80%	7,564.88	7,738.2	yes
		95%	7,522.51	7,780.57	yes
2026-10-01 (preliminary) · nightly	7,651.54	50%	7,596.42	7,706.66	yes
		80%	7,564.88	7,738.2	yes
		95%	7,522.51	7,780.57	yes
2026-10-02 · morning	7,666.45	50%	7,611.49	7,721.41	no
		80%	7,580.04	7,752.86	no
		95%	7,537.79	7,795.11	yes
2026-10-02 (preliminary) · nightly	7,666.45	50%	7,611.49	7,721.41	no
		80%	7,580.04	7,752.86	no
		95%	7,537.79	7,795.11	yes
2026-10-05 · morning	7,722.72	50%	7,669.24	7,776.2	no
		80%	7,638.63	7,806.81	yes
		95%	7,597.51	7,847.93	yes
2026-10-05 (preliminary) · nightly	7,722.72	50%	7,669.24	7,776.2	no
		80%	7,638.63	7,806.81	yes
		95%	7,597.51	7,847.93	yes
2026-10-06 · morning	7,773.95	50%	7,719.66	7,828.24	no
		80%	7,688.59	7,859.31	yes
		95%	7,646.86	7,901.04	yes
2026-10-06 (preliminary) · nightly	7,773.95	50%	7,719.66	7,828.24	no
		80%	7,688.59	7,859.31	yes
		95%	7,646.86	7,901.04	yes
2026-10-07 · morning	7,818.93	50%	7,764.46	7,873.4	no
		80%	7,733.29	7,904.57	yes
		95%	7,691.42	7,946.44	yes
2026-10-07 (preliminary) · nightly	7,818.93	50%	7,764.46	7,873.4	no
		80%	7,733.29	7,904.57	yes
		95%	7,691.42	7,946.44	yes
2026-10-08 · morning	7,801.77	50%	7,747.03	7,856.51	no
		80%	7,715.71	7,887.83	yes
		95%	7,673.63	7,929.91	yes
2026-10-08 (preliminary) · nightly	7,801.77	50%	7,747.03	7,856.51	no
		80%	7,715.71	7,887.83	yes
		95%	7,673.63	7,929.91	yes
2026-10-09 · morning	7,765.36	50%	7,707.96	7,822.76	yes
		80%	7,675.11	7,855.61	yes
		95%	7,630.98	7,899.74	yes
2026-10-09 (preliminary) · nightly	7,765.36	50%	7,707.96	7,822.76	yes
		80%	7,675.11	7,855.61	yes
		95%	7,630.98	7,899.74	yes
2026-10-12 · morning	7,811.54	50%	7,757.62	7,865.46	yes
		80%	7,726.76	7,896.32	yes
		95%	7,685.31	7,937.77	yes
2026-10-12 (preliminary) · nightly	7,811.54	50%	7,757.62	7,865.46	yes
		80%	7,726.76	7,896.32	yes
		95%	7,685.31	7,937.77	yes
2026-10-13 · morning	7,807.24	50%	7,754.53	7,859.95	yes
		80%	7,724.37	7,890.11	yes
		95%	7,683.86	7,930.63	yes
2026-10-13 (preliminary) · nightly	7,807.24	50%	7,754.53	7,859.95	yes
		80%	7,724.37	7,890.11	yes
		95%	7,683.86	7,930.63	yes
2026-10-14 · morning	7,805.45	50%	7,755.35	7,855.55	no
		80%	7,726.68	7,884.22	no
		95%	7,688.16	7,922.74	yes
2026-10-14 (preliminary) · nightly	7,805.45	50%	7,755.35	7,855.55	no
		80%	7,726.68	7,884.22	no
		95%	7,688.16	7,922.74	yes
2026-10-15 · morning	7,718.94	50%	7,659.9	7,777.98	yes
		80%	7,626.11	7,811.77	yes
		95%	7,580.73	7,857.15	yes
2026-10-15 (preliminary) · nightly	7,718.94	50%	7,659.9	7,777.98	yes
		80%	7,626.11	7,811.77	yes
		95%	7,580.73	7,857.15	yes
2026-10-16 · morning	7,744.06	50%	7,687.49	7,800.63	no
		80%	7,655.12	7,833	no
		95%	7,611.63	7,876.49	yes
2026-10-16 (preliminary) · nightly	7,744.06	50%	7,687.49	7,800.63	no
		80%	7,655.12	7,833	no
		95%	7,611.63	7,876.49	yes
2026-10-19 · morning	7,659.44	50%	7,586.01	7,732.87	yes
		80%	7,544	7,774.88	yes
		95%	7,487.55	7,831.33	yes
2026-10-19 (preliminary) · nightly	7,659.44	50%	7,586.01	7,732.87	yes
		80%	7,544	7,774.88	yes
		95%	7,487.55	7,831.33	yes
2026-10-20 · morning	7,690.73	50%	7,619.88	7,761.58	yes
		80%	7,579.34	7,802.12	yes
		95%	7,524.87	7,856.59	yes
2026-10-20 (preliminary) · nightly	7,690.73	50%	7,619.88	7,761.58	yes
		80%	7,579.34	7,802.12	yes
		95%	7,524.87	7,856.59	yes
2026-10-21 · morning	7,712.57	50%	7,644.89	7,780.25	yes
		80%	7,606.16	7,818.98	yes
		95%	7,554.13	7,871.01	yes
2026-10-21 (preliminary) · nightly	7,712.57	50%	7,644.89	7,780.25	yes
		80%	7,606.16	7,818.98	yes
		95%	7,554.13	7,871.01	yes
2026-10-22 · morning	7,757.17	50%	7,694.36	7,819.98	no
		80%	7,658.42	7,855.92	no
		95%	7,610.14	7,904.2	yes
2026-10-22 (preliminary) · nightly	7,757.17	50%	7,694.36	7,819.98	no
		80%	7,658.42	7,855.92	no
		95%	7,610.14	7,904.2	yes
2026-10-23 · morning	7,663.43	50%	7,588.01	7,738.85	yes
		80%	7,544.85	7,782.01	yes
		95%	7,486.87	7,839.99	yes
2026-10-23 (preliminary) · nightly	7,663.43	50%	7,588.01	7,738.85	yes
		80%	7,544.85	7,782.01	yes
		95%	7,486.87	7,839.99	yes
2026-10-26 (preliminary) · nightly	7,623.68	50%	7,550.01	7,697.35	not graded
		80%	7,507.86	7,739.5	not graded
		95%	7,451.23	7,796.14	not graded

Band calibration

Live and backtest samples are two different populations and are reported separately. They are never summed, averaged or presented as one number.

contained means the whole session stayed inside, gap included

live_* counts sessions posted and then graded. backtest_* counts out-of-sample sessions the fitted model never saw. They are separate evidence and are never added together.

Band hold rates, live and backtest
BAND	LIVE HOLD RATE	BACKTEST HOLD RATE (OUT OF SAMPLE)
nightly 50%	53.3% (n=45)	49.7% (n=157)
nightly 80%	86.7% (n=45)	83.4% (n=157)
nightly 95%	97.8% (n=45)	98.1% (n=157)
morning 50%	54.3% (n=46)	49.7% (n=157)
morning 80%	87% (n=46)	83.4% (n=157)
morning 95%	97.8% (n=46)	98.1% (n=157)

Pre-registration ledger

Before a study runs, the method and the kill condition are written down and countersigned. This ledger records each of those documents by the SHA-256 of its contents, with every entry linked to the one before it by hash, so any later edit to any entry breaks the chain from that point on. The point is that the claim stops being something you have to take our word for: the command below recomputes the whole chain on your machine. The entries seeded when the ledger was created are marked retrospective, because their timestamps are when the entry was written and not when the method was frozen.

Chain verified: 6 entries

Recomputed 2026-10-26 09:53 UTC. Head hash 8cc229c478cf…dc821c63. Run the command below to recompute it yourself rather than take this line for it.

4 of 6 entries are retrospective seeds. A seed records a document that was countersigned before this ledger existed, using the document as it stands today. Its timestamp is when the ledger entry was written, not when the method was frozen. The freeze dates are inside the documents and in the commits that added them. Documents frozen from here on are recorded at freeze time and carry no seed label.

This chain proves that no entry has been edited, reordered or removed since the entries after it were written. It does not by itself prove when an entry was written, because the timestamp is ours. Entries marked retrospective_seed were recorded after the documents were frozen.

External timestamp anchoring is off. Entry timestamps are ours and are not independently attested.

#1Countersignature: close-pin A/B pre-registrationRETROSPECTIVE SEED
docs/research/PREREG_PIN_AB_2026-08-26_COUNTERSIGN.md (3,925 bytes)
document sha256 4b68d69295374c9f9ea947341a06e0bcff5fec2a41f363be5cc87799a39f8c85
chain hash 712d6d4f2254…eba20768 · links to 000000000000…00000000
Ledger entry written 2026-09-22 17:33 UTC. That is when this entry was recorded, not when the document was frozen. This document was countersigned before the ledger existed, so its own signature date and the commit that added it are the record of when the method was fixed.
This document has changed since this entry recorded it. The chain is intact and the entry still records what the document was. A later amendment is recorded as its own entry further down.
#2Countersignature: tripwire ablation pre-registrationRETROSPECTIVE SEED
docs/research/PREREG_TRIPWIRE_ABLATION_2026-08-27_COUNTERSIGN.md (2,964 bytes)
document sha256 ab41c37595f328abe36e0e7e638449b3e40360407eaf351af943233488189bf1
chain hash ab4e1c9ede28…5790bd93 · links to 712d6d4f2254…eba20768
Ledger entry written 2026-09-22 17:33 UTC. That is when this entry was recorded, not when the document was frozen. This document was countersigned before the ledger existed, so its own signature date and the commit that added it are the record of when the method was fixed.
#3Level record protocolRETROSPECTIVE SEED
docs/research/level-record-protocol.md (7,927 bytes)
document sha256 05fbe6821c7237d3db58ba8b67c0878e53568e224519a52b1ce1e99cc5107308
chain hash 05de533c1523…06a46dda · links to ab4e1c9ede28…5790bd93
Ledger entry written 2026-09-22 17:33 UTC. That is when this entry was recorded, not when the document was frozen. This document was countersigned before the ledger existed, so its own signature date and the commit that added it are the record of when the method was fixed.
This document has changed since this entry recorded it. The chain is intact and the entry still records what the document was. A later amendment is recorded as its own entry further down.
#4Astra countersign: September 29 return-hook readoutRETROSPECTIVE SEED
docs/growth/2026-09-20-sept29-readout-countersign.md (10,800 bytes)
document sha256 befadbf34bf86d8499adcb92961a077615787ec6d6a7af9dfd534ce9f3cd43af
chain hash cdd1082a4205…4ea94874 · links to 05de533c1523…06a46dda
Ledger entry written 2026-09-22 17:33 UTC. That is when this entry was recorded, not when the document was frozen. This document was countersigned before the ledger existed, so its own signature date and the commit that added it are the record of when the method was fixed.
#5Countersignature: close-pin A/B pre-registration
docs/research/PREREG_PIN_AB_2026-08-26_COUNTERSIGN.md (5,264 bytes)
document sha256 c9ce1a8ff7dd152d7a97a03b4e3d452a74991f49d058d2cbcf458dd123e528d9
chain hash e8237d9ce78a…ebc466b8 · links to cdd1082a4205…4ea94874
Ledger entry written 2026-10-09 03:54 UTC.
#6Level record protocol
docs/research/level-record-protocol.md (9,660 bytes)
document sha256 4b56fed134601f4d5316afd5d5572ce3b69eda1fa80371adab721475050734a3
chain hash 8cc229c478cf…dc821c63 · links to e8237d9ce78a…ebc466b8
Ledger entry written 2026-10-19 23:47 UTC.

Verify it yourself

One command. It fetches the ledger from the API, recomputes every hash with the Python standard library, and fails loudly on the first entry that does not match what we published. Nothing in it trusts this page.

curl -s https://api.squawkflow.com/api/public/lab/ledger | python3 -c '
import sys, json, hashlib
entries = json.load(sys.stdin)["data"]["entries"]
prev = "0" * 64
for e in entries:
    recorded = e.pop("chainHash")
    assert e["prevHash"] == prev, "entry %s does not link to the previous one" % e["seq"]
    body = json.dumps(e, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"))
    assert hashlib.sha256(body.encode()).hexdigest() == recorded, "entry %s was altered" % e["seq"]
    prev = recorded
print("chain OK:", len(entries), "entries, head", prev)
'

The same check runs from the repository with python3 scripts/lab/ledger.py verify, which additionally rehashes each recorded document on disk and reports any that changed after they were recorded. Both exit nonzero on a break.

What this proves, and what it does not

It proves no entry was edited, reordered or removed after the entries following it were written. Change one byte of one entry and every hash after it stops matching.
It does not prove when an entry was written. We write the timestamp, so a reader who does not trust us should not treat it as attested. External timestamp anchoring is not switched on, and this page says so rather than implying otherwise.
It does not prove the ledger is complete. Dropping entries off the end leaves a shorter chain that still verifies. Our second witness against that is the git history of backend/data/prereg_ledger.jsonl, and the repository is not public, so that is a witness you cannot inspect. What you can do is record the head hash above on any date and check later that the chain still contains it.
It says nothing about whether any pre-registered study turned out well. The ledger records what was committed to in advance. The explainer covers why that is the part worth recording.

How to read this page

Start with the engine cards. Each one carries two measurement books with their own sample sizes, the thresholds the engine is judged against, and the research pipeline’s verdict underneath, quoted exactly as it was written. Compare the two books first: whether they agree is usually the finding. The verdict is not always a pass or a fail. An engine can be judged on too small a sample to say anything about, or two measurement windows can disagree with each other, and in both cases the honest verdict is that no claim is being made. Those engines stay on the page with that verdict intact, because knowing which engines nobody can vouch for yet is most of the value of publishing this at all.

Then read the records. A number without its sample size is a number you cannot weigh, so every rate on this page carries an n, and where the n is too small the rate is not shown at all. That is a refusal to publish, not missing data, and the page says which.

Questions

Are these real trades?: No. Every record on this page is paper trading. The engines produce simulated entries and exits against live market data, no orders are placed, no money is at risk, and SquawkFlow holds no broker credentials and has no order execution of any kind.
Why publish losing trades?: Because a record that only shows winners is not a record. Every trade an engine produced appears here regardless of outcome, and there is no filter on this page that can hide one. An engine whose sample is too small to say anything about is shown with its sample size and its verdict rather than quietly left out.
What does "insufficient sample" mean?: It means the number exists but the sample behind it is too small to publish. Rates, ratios and averages are withheld below ten observations and the page says "insufficient sample" explicitly rather than showing a blank or a dash, both of which read as missing data instead of a deliberate refusal. Counts and the individual trade records are never withheld: those are facts, not estimates.
Why does each engine show two sets of numbers?: Because the research measures each engine over two periods and reports both. One book covers a recent window, the other covers the engine’s whole history, and they are separate measurements of different samples. Showing them side by side means you can see for yourself whether they agree. Two books that agree are evidence a single headline number would have hidden, and two that disagree are the reason an engine can end up with no claim made about it at all. Nothing on this page averages them or picks the better-looking one.
What is a split verdict?: It means two measurement windows disagree about the same engine, and the research pipeline has declined to claim a result in either direction until they agree. It is not a middling score and it is not a soft pass. The verdict states both readings and both sample sizes, and this page reproduces it in full rather than quoting whichever window happens to look better. A page that resolved that disagreement on the reader’s behalf would be inventing a conclusion the research did not reach.
Where do the verdict words come from?: From the research pipeline itself, not from this page. Each engine is judged in one place and the resulting verdict is quoted here exactly as it was written, including verdict words this page has never rendered before. Nothing here rewords a verdict, ranks one above another, or hides one it does not recognise.
Why are live results and backtest results reported separately?: They are different populations and merging them would misstate both. A live sample of five sessions and an out-of-sample backtest of 157 sessions is not a sample of 162. Each is labelled and carries its own count, and nothing on this page adds them together.
What does the vote do?: It records whether a reader found the record itself useful to see, not whether the trade was a good idea. Votes are unverified and not linked to your identity, they are not a rating of the strategy, and they never influence how the engines run or what gets published.
How often does this update?: The record is regenerated after the afternoon runs and again in the evening on trading days. The absolute age of the published data is shown at the top of the page on every load, so you can see how fresh the record is rather than assuming.
What is the pre-registration ledger?: It is an append-only list of the documents that fixed a study’s method before the study ran, each recorded by the SHA-256 hash of its contents and linked to the previous entry by hash. Editing, reordering or removing any entry changes that entry’s hash and breaks every entry after it. The page publishes a one-line command that recomputes the whole chain from the public API, so the claim can be checked rather than believed.
What does the ledger not prove?: It does not prove when an entry was written, because the timestamp in each entry is written by us and is not attested by anyone else. It does not prove the list is complete, because a shorter chain still verifies. And it says nothing about whether a study turned out well: it records what was committed to in advance, not the result. The entries seeded when the ledger was created are labelled retrospective, since those documents were frozen before the ledger existed and their entry timestamps are ledger time rather than freeze time.
Is any of this advice?: No. This page describes what a set of research engines did in simulation. It contains no recommendations, no price targets and no suggestion that anyone should take any position. SquawkFlow publishes market-structure data and education and has no order execution.

TODAY

TOOLS

LEARN

SITE

The Lab: paper trading records, published in full

Engines

SPXMAN v2

Tripwire

Convexity Harvester

Paper trade records

Range forecasts

Band calibration

Pre-registration ledger

Verify it yourself

What this proves, and what it does not

How to read this page

Questions

Related