Midterm elections 2026 and the stock market: what SPX options price for the Nov 4 session

26 days and 18 NYSE sessions to Tuesday November 3, 2026.

As of 2026-10-08 ET. Counts sessions after this date through Nov 3, including Nov 3. Source: NYSE trading calendar.

SPX options price about ±1.05% for the Nov 4 session (one standard deviation, Nov 3 close to Nov 4 close).

Median ordinary single session on the same curve, expirations Oct 19 to Oct 30 (7 slices), read Oct 8, 16:14 ET: about ±0.69%.

As of Oct 8, 16:14 ET, delayed Cboe SPX chain. Risk-neutral, not a forecast.

Read as the difference between what the chain prices to the Nov 4 close and to the Nov 3 close, on the ATM implied-volatility forward variance (the figure shown), checked against the ATM straddle cross-check, which reads the same quotes and flags a bad chain rather than corroborating the figure. A slice holds one ordinary session's variance plus any event inside it. Ordinary sessions exclude weekends and the listed FOMC, CPI and payrolls dates.

Risk-neutral, not a forecast. This is a risk-neutral price of movement read off option prices: what the option market charges for a one-standard-deviation move over the interval, not a measure of how far the index has moved on such days or a claim about how far it will. Option prices carry a variance risk premium, so this figure reads larger than realized moves on average.

Read each expiration

• 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-23: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-26: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-27: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-28 to 2026-10-29: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-29 to 2026-10-30: 1 trading session
• 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-02: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-03: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-04: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-05: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-06: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-09: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-10: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-10 to 2026-11-11: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-11 to 2026-11-12: 1 trading session
• 2026-11-12 to 2026-11-13: 1 trading session

October VX minus November VX: -0.38 points

At the Oct 8 settlement (Cboe daily settlements).

The October VX future settles Oct 21 on a VIX reading that measures SPX options out to Nov 20, a window that contains Nov 3. The November future settles Nov 18, and its window does not.

Is there an election hump? Not on Oct 8.

A VIX futures curve usually slopes upward, so a negative gap is the usual shape; a positive gap would mean the market pays more for the window that holds election week, the Oct 28 FOMC and the Nov 6 payrolls than for the one after it. Cboe documented such a bump in 2020 and 2024, both presidential years. This page states what today's curve shows, dated, and nothing more.

Index points from Cboe daily settlement prices and the Cboe VIX index. A futures price, not a forecast of volatility.

Since the previous session

History, one row per session

The scheduled week around it

A slice holds one ordinary session's variance plus any event inside it, so the calendar matters: the FOMC meets October 27 to 28, JOLTS is released on Election Day, the Employment Situation on Friday November 6 and CPI on Tuesday November 10. The dated election week schedule lists each one with the publisher it comes from.

COMMON QUESTIONS

Is the stock market open on Election Day 2026?

Yes. Election Day, Tuesday November 3, 2026, is not an NYSE holiday, so US stock exchanges hold a regular session from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Source: the NYSE holidays and trading hours page, checked 2026-09-25.Source

Is the bond market open on Veterans Day?

SIFMA recommends a full close of US bond markets on Veterans Day, Wednesday November 11, 2026. It is not an NYSE holiday, so US stock exchanges are open that day. Source: the SIFMA holiday schedule, checked 2026-09-25.Source

What else is scheduled that week?

Around Election Day the published schedules list the FOMC meeting (Federal Reserve Board) on October 27 to 28, 2026; the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 10:00 a.m. ET; the Employment Situation (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Friday, November 6, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET; the Consumer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET. Each date comes from the publisher's own calendar; schedules can change, so check the source.Source

What did stocks do after past midterms?

Past midterms are a small sample, and other scheduled events fell in the same weeks, such as the Federal Reserve announcement of November 3, 2010 and the CPI release of November 10, 2022. A 2023 working paper by Anderson, Bialkowski and Wagner finds that the apparent return advantage around midterms is largely absorbed by standard risk adjustment. A historical pattern is not a forecast, and SquawkFlow publishes no view on what stocks will do after November 3, 2026. SquawkFlow's dated record of past midterm sessions is at squawkflow.com/elections/2026/history.Source

Where are the live election odds?

On the venues that price them, Kalshi (kalshi.com) and Polymarket (polymarket.com). Polymarket is an international venue where trading is not available to US persons; Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue. SquawkFlow does not forecast election outcomes and publishes no venue price as its own; a prediction-market price belongs to its venue.Source

Where the election odds are priced

Election contracts trade on prediction-market venues, and their prices belong to those venues. SquawkFlow does not forecast election outcomes, publishes no venue price as its own, and has no relationship with either venue. Plain links, in alphabetical order:

• Kalshi: A US venue for event contracts, registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market.
• Polymarket: Polymarket (international venue). Trading there is not available to US persons; Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue.

Two clocks

Two markets answering different questions on different clocks. SquawkFlow does not combine them or record the venue's prices.

A poll estimates vote share; a contract prices an outcome. Neither is a SquawkFlow view, and they cannot be subtracted.

Method and sources

A slice is the stretch between two adjacent listed SPX expirations. For each slice from 2026-10-19 to 2026-11-13 the page computes the one-standard-deviation move from the ATM implied volatility and checks it with a straddle cross-check read from the same quotes:

• Estimator (a), ATM implied-volatility forward variance: sqrt(sigma_b^2 T_b - sigma_a^2 T_a)
• Estimator (b), ATM straddle cross-check, a data-quality cross-check on the same quotes: sqrt((S_b/F_b)^2 - (S_a/F_a)^2) * sqrt(pi/2)

The card always shows estimator (a). When the cross-check differs by more than 15% (relative), the card says so beside the figure; the cross-check flags a bad chain and is never shown as an estimate of its own. A slice whose forward variance comes out negative, or whose chain fails the quality gate, is withheld rather than clamped or interpolated. The comparator is the median of estimator (a) over single-session, non-weekend, non-event slices in the ten trading sessions before November 2, published only when three or more slices qualify and always printed with the date it was read and its slice count. The record value is the reading at the Nov 2 close, the last full-session reading before Election Day: by the Nov 3 close the Nov 3 expiration has settled, so no Nov 3 close reading of this slice can exist. Event slices left out: CPI (2026-10-14), FOMC (2026-10-28), Election (2026-11-04), Employment Situation (2026-11-06), CPI (2026-11-10).

No discount factor is applied, as on the implied-odds route. On the Nov 4 slice this biases both estimators by under one percent of the figure, relative, at a 4 percent rate.

Roots SPXW. Each expiration is dated at its New York close (16:00, 13:00 on an NYSE early close), read off the close-settled root where one is quoted. Years to expiry run on a 365-day calendar clock from the time of calculation. Method event-premium-1.1.0. These are risk-neutral probabilities read off option prices. They are what the option market charges for a payout, not a measure of how often the outcome has happened or a claim about how often it will.

What one standard deviation means here

Under the model the number comes from, a close-to-close move inside the band happens about two sessions in three and outside it about one session in three. A move larger than the band is ordinary. It is a price of movement, not a forecast of it.

Sources, with the day each was checked

• NYSE holidays and trading hours, New York Stock Exchange, checked 2026-09-25. Election Day and Veterans Day are not NYSE holidays in 2026; the session counts walk this list.
• SIFMA holiday schedule, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, checked 2026-09-25. The recommended US bond market close on Veterans Day, Wednesday November 11, 2026.
• BLS release schedule, October 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics, checked 2026-09-25. The October 14 CPI release, one of the event slices left out of the comparator.
• BLS release schedule, November 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics, checked 2026-09-25. JOLTS on Nov 3, the Employment Situation on Nov 6 and CPI on Nov 10.
• FOMC meeting calendar, Federal Reserve Board, checked 2026-09-25. The October 27 to 28 meeting, one of the event slices left out of the comparator.
• Can I Vote, National Association of Secretaries of State, checked 2026-09-25. Where to find official election information and results from your state. This page publishes none.
• How to use embeds, Polymarket, checked 2026-09-25. The venue-hosted widget, the only way a venue price may appear on this page. None appears yet.
• Option quotes: the delayed Cboe SPX chain, mid-market. VIX futures: Cboe daily settlement prices.

Prediction market prices shown here are set by traders on the named venue and displayed through that venue’s own widget at the time shown. They are not SquawkFlow forecasts, not probabilities and not advice. SquawkFlow has no relationship with, and receives nothing from, any venue shown. SquawkFlow publishes no vote counts and calls no races; see your state election office for official results. Event-contract availability depends on where you live.