S&P 500 prediction today: where will it close?
Pick a bucket before the 9:30 AM ET open. At the lock, see how the crowd split next to what SPX options priced. After the close, see where it landed. No signup.
A free game for fun. No money, no prizes, nothing to buy. Crowd picks are opinions from players, not a forecast, and not investment advice from SquawkFlow.
Where does the S&P 500 close today?
Friday, October 9. Percent from the prior official close (7,765.36 on 2026-10-08).
Five buckets, each priced at about a 20% chance by SPX options when the grid was set.
Picks lock at 9:30 AM ET on the server clock, in 12h 27m. One pick per session, final once made.
The crowd split and the options split are sealed until the 9:30 AM ET lock, so nobody picks by copying the crowd.
Last session: Thursday, October 8
The S&P 500 closed down 0.47%, in the bucket Below -0.40%.
Scored against the official S&P 500 close of October 8, 2026, 7,765.36. Early close days end at 1:00 PM ET.
Crowd picks (n=1): the split stays sealed below 25 picks.
Crowd vs options, who was closer: fewer than 25 crowd picks, so no comparison for this session.
Leaderboard
No one has the 3 scored picks this board needs yet.
Options-implied range is risk-neutral, priced from SPX options. It is not a forecast.
COMMON QUESTIONS
- How does the S&P 500 prediction game work?
- Each trading day you pick one of five buckets for where the S&P 500 closes, measured as percent from the prior official close. Picks lock at 9:30 AM ET on our server clock. After the official close you see which bucket it landed in, how the crowd split and what the options market priced.
- How are the five buckets set?
- They are cut at the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles of the risk-neutral distribution recovered from delayed SPX option quotes for that session, so each bucket was priced at about a 20% chance when the grid was set. That is a price, not a forecast.
- Does SquawkFlow make a prediction?
- No. Players make the picks. SquawkFlow publishes no pick of its own, and the crowd split is opinions from players, not a forecast and not investment advice.
- Why is the crowd split hidden before the open?
- So that nobody picks by copying the crowd. The crowd split and the options split appear together at the 9:30 AM ET lock, and the crowd split stays sealed until at least 25 picks are in.
- How is it scored?
- One point when the close lands in your bucket. Your play streak counts the trading sessions you played; weekends and holidays never break it, and one missed session a week is forgiven. The leaderboard ranks by the Wilson lower bound on picks that landed, with a minimum number of scored picks.
- Is there a prize?
- No. There is no entry fee and no prize of any kind. Points, streaks and ranks have no value and cannot be exchanged.