Narration: AI voice.
Two questions, one page
Is the stock market open on Election Day? And what does the options market charge for the session right after it? SquawkFlow answers both on one free page. Here's the read off that page, as captured on October 15, 2026. What the number is. And what it isn't.
Two dates: Nov 3 and Nov 4
First answer. Yes. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. It's not an NYSE holiday. Not an early close either. Regular session, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern. The box under it keeps the count. 19 days and 13 NYSE sessions to go, as of October 15, 2026. Now the second question. The page doesn't price Election Day itself. It prices the session after it. Nov 3 close to Nov 4 close. The first full session after the vote. So when a headline quotes an election move, check which day it means.
How options price one session
How does an option chain price one day? SPX lists options that expire at the Nov 3 close. And options that expire at the Nov 4 close. Each one carries the variance priced up to its own close. Subtract one from the other. What's left is the price of one extra session. That slice holds one ordinary session's variance, plus any event inside it. The page turns it into a one standard deviation move, in percent. That's a width. Not a direction. Under the model, a close-to-close move lands inside the band about two sessions in three. Outside it, about one in three. A bigger move is ordinary.
The figure, dated
Here's the card. SPX options price about plus or minus 1.00 percent for the Nov 4 session. One standard deviation, Nov 3 close to Nov 4 close. The line under it carries the time. As of 4:03 PM Eastern on October 15, from the delayed Cboe SPX chain. Risk-neutral. Not a forecast. The page reads it again every trading day, so the time matters as much as the figure.
Two estimators, one cross-check
Further down, the method. Two estimators, same quotes. Estimator A reads at-the-money implied volatility as forward variance between the two expirations. That's the figure on the card. Estimator B uses the at-the-money straddle. It's a data-quality check. When it disagrees past a set tolerance, the card says so. Agreement means the chain passes the check. It doesn't mean the figure is right. And a slice that comes out negative, or fails the quality gate, gets withheld. Not clamped. Not filled in. Then the history. One row per session. Rows are never overwritten. And the value that goes on the record is the reading at the Nov 2 close. Why not Nov 3? By the Nov 3 close, the Nov 3 expiration has settled. No later reading of this slice can exist.
What this number is not
Three things this number is not. It's not a call on the election. SquawkFlow calls no races and publishes no vote counts. It's not a call on the market. It's a risk-neutral price of movement, not a measure of how far the index has moved on days like this. Option prices carry a variance risk premium, so a figure like this reads larger than realized moves on average. And it's not the odds. Outcome prices belong to the venues, Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket's international venue is not open to US persons. The page links them and copies none of their prices.
Wrap
Bottom line. The market is open on November 3. The priced session is November 4. And the figure is a dated price of movement, read again every trading day. The link is in the description. Education, not advice.
Full write-up with sources: /learn/options-implied-probability
Educational content, not investment advice.
Levels shown are as captured on 2026-10-15 16:20 ET; they are not current.