Election 2026: what SPX options price for the Nov 4 session.Election 2026: what SPX options price

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PREDICTIONS RECORD

S&P 500 close picks, Thursday, October 8

Closed down 0.47% at 7,765.36, in the bucket Below -0.40%.

Scored against the official S&P 500 close of October 8, 2026, 7,765.36. Early close days end at 1:00 PM ET.

Bucket (from prior close)Crowd picksOptions priced
Below -0.40%sealed20%
-0.40% to -0.08%sealed20%
-0.08% to +0.16%sealed20%
+0.16% to +0.42%sealed20%
+0.42% or highersealed20%

Five buckets, each priced at about a 20% chance by SPX options when the grid was set.

Crowd picks (n=1). Crowd picks count one pick per network address, the first one made, using a keyed hash of the address. The split stays sealed below 25 picks.

Crowd vs options, who was closer: fewer than 25 crowd picks, so no comparison for this session.

Options-implied range is risk-neutral, priced from SPX options. It is not a forecast.

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