FOMC meeting, October 28, 2026
The Federal Reserve lists the FOMC meeting for October 27 to 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on Oct 28, 2026. On the 261 scheduled Fed decision days since Feb 4, 1994, the S&P 500's median close-to-close move was 0.64%, against 0.53% on all sessions.
Date and time
- FOMC meeting: October 27 to 28, 2026. A scheduled two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, as listed on the Federal Reserve meeting calendar. Federal Reserve Board, checked Oct 10, 2026.
- FOMC meeting release, 2:00 p.m. ET: Wednesday, October 28, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET. The Federal Reserve October 2026 calendar lists the two-day FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve Board, checked Oct 10, 2026.
What options price for it
SPX expected move to the FOMC decision, read off the option chain each session. A risk-neutral price of movement, not a forecast.
The S&P 500 on past scheduled Fed decision days
On the 261 scheduled Fed decision days from Feb 4, 1994 through Sep 16, 2026, the S&P 500's median close-to-close move was 0.64%, larger than the 0.53% median across all 8,228 sessions from Feb 4, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026.
It closed higher on 142 of the 261 (54.4%), against 53.9% of all sessions.
It moved more than 1% either way on 33.0% of them, against 26.5% of all sessions.
In 2026, through Sep 16, 2026, it closed lower on 6 of the 6 scheduled Fed decision days, the smallest move -0.01% on Jan 28 (small sample, 6 days).
2026 (small sample, 6 days)
| Scheduled Fed decision day | S&P 500 close to close |
|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -0.45% |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -1.52% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.21% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -0.04% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -1.36% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | -0.01% |
All 261 scheduled Fed decision days since Feb 4, 1994, newest first
| Scheduled Fed decision day | S&P 500 close to close |
|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -0.45% |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -1.52% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.21% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -0.04% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -1.36% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | -0.01% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | +0.67% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 0.00% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | -0.10% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | -0.12% |
| Jun 18, 2025 | -0.03% |
| May 7, 2025 | +0.43% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | +1.08% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | -0.47% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | -2.95% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | +0.74% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | -0.29% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | +1.58% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | +0.85% |
| May 1, 2024 | -0.34% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | +0.89% |
| Jan 31, 2024 | -1.61% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | +1.37% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | +1.05% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | -0.94% |
| Jul 26, 2023 | -0.02% |
| Jun 14, 2023 | +0.08% |
| May 3, 2023 | -0.70% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | -1.65% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | +1.05% |
| Dec 14, 2022 | -0.61% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | -2.50% |
| Sep 21, 2022 | -1.71% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | +2.62% |
| Jun 15, 2022 | +1.46% |
| May 4, 2022 | +2.99% |
| Mar 16, 2022 | +2.24% |
| Jan 26, 2022 | -0.15% |
| Dec 15, 2021 | +1.63% |
| Nov 3, 2021 | +0.65% |
| Sep 22, 2021 | +0.95% |
| Jul 28, 2021 | -0.02% |
| Jun 16, 2021 | -0.54% |
| Apr 28, 2021 | -0.08% |
| Mar 17, 2021 | +0.29% |
| Jan 27, 2021 | -2.57% |
| Dec 16, 2020 | +0.18% |
| Nov 5, 2020 | +1.95% |
| Sep 16, 2020 | -0.46% |
| Jul 29, 2020 | +1.24% |
| Jun 10, 2020 | -0.53% |
| Apr 29, 2020 | +2.66% |
| Jan 29, 2020 | -0.09% |
| Dec 11, 2019 | +0.29% |
| Oct 30, 2019 | +0.33% |
| Sep 18, 2019 | +0.03% |
| Jul 31, 2019 | -1.09% |
| Jun 19, 2019 | +0.30% |
| May 1, 2019 | -0.75% |
| Mar 20, 2019 | -0.29% |
| Jan 30, 2019 | +1.55% |
| Dec 19, 2018 | -1.54% |
| Nov 8, 2018 | -0.25% |
| Sep 26, 2018 | -0.33% |
| Aug 1, 2018 | -0.10% |
| Jun 13, 2018 | -0.40% |
| May 2, 2018 | -0.72% |
| Mar 21, 2018 | -0.18% |
| Jan 31, 2018 | +0.05% |
| Dec 13, 2017 | -0.05% |
| Nov 1, 2017 | +0.16% |
| Sep 20, 2017 | +0.06% |
| Jul 26, 2017 | +0.03% |
| Jun 14, 2017 | -0.10% |
| May 3, 2017 | -0.13% |
| Mar 15, 2017 | +0.84% |
| Feb 1, 2017 | +0.03% |
| Dec 14, 2016 | -0.81% |
| Nov 2, 2016 | -0.65% |
| Sep 21, 2016 | +1.09% |
| Jul 27, 2016 | -0.12% |
| Jun 15, 2016 | -0.18% |
| Apr 27, 2016 | +0.16% |
| Mar 16, 2016 | +0.56% |
| Jan 27, 2016 | -1.09% |
| Dec 16, 2015 | +1.45% |
| Oct 28, 2015 | +1.18% |
| Sep 17, 2015 | -0.26% |
| Jul 29, 2015 | +0.73% |
| Jun 17, 2015 | +0.20% |
| Apr 29, 2015 | -0.37% |
| Mar 18, 2015 | +1.22% |
| Jan 28, 2015 | -1.35% |
| Dec 17, 2014 | +2.04% |
| Oct 29, 2014 | -0.14% |
| Sep 17, 2014 | +0.13% |
| Jul 30, 2014 | +0.01% |
| Jun 18, 2014 | +0.77% |
| Apr 30, 2014 | +0.30% |
| Mar 19, 2014 | -0.61% |
| Jan 29, 2014 | -1.02% |
| Dec 18, 2013 | +1.66% |
| Oct 30, 2013 | -0.49% |
| Sep 18, 2013 | +1.22% |
| Jul 31, 2013 | -0.01% |
| Jun 19, 2013 | -1.39% |
| May 1, 2013 | -0.93% |
| Mar 20, 2013 | +0.67% |
| Jan 30, 2013 | -0.39% |
| Dec 12, 2012 | +0.04% |
| Oct 24, 2012 | -0.31% |
| Sep 13, 2012 | +1.63% |
| Aug 1, 2012 | -0.29% |
| Jun 20, 2012 | -0.17% |
| Apr 25, 2012 | +1.36% |
| Mar 13, 2012 | +1.81% |
| Jan 25, 2012 | +0.87% |
| Dec 13, 2011 | -0.87% |
| Nov 2, 2011 | +1.61% |
| Sep 21, 2011 | -2.94% |
| Aug 9, 2011 | +4.74% |
| Jun 22, 2011 | -0.65% |
| Apr 27, 2011 | +0.62% |
| Mar 15, 2011 | -1.12% |
| Jan 26, 2011 | +0.42% |
| Dec 14, 2010 | +0.09% |
| Nov 3, 2010 | +0.37% |
| Sep 21, 2010 | -0.26% |
| Aug 10, 2010 | -0.60% |
| Jun 23, 2010 | -0.30% |
| Apr 28, 2010 | +0.65% |
| Mar 16, 2010 | +0.78% |
| Jan 27, 2010 | +0.49% |
| Dec 16, 2009 | +0.11% |
| Nov 4, 2009 | +0.10% |
| Sep 23, 2009 | -1.01% |
| Aug 12, 2009 | +1.15% |
| Jun 24, 2009 | +0.65% |
| Apr 29, 2009 | +2.16% |
| Mar 18, 2009 | +2.09% |
| Jan 28, 2009 | +3.36% |
| Dec 16, 2008 | +5.14% |
| Oct 29, 2008 | -1.11% |
| Sep 16, 2008 | +1.75% |
| Aug 5, 2008 | +2.87% |
| Jun 25, 2008 | +0.58% |
| Apr 30, 2008 | -0.38% |
| Mar 18, 2008 | +4.24% |
| Jan 30, 2008 | -0.48% |
| Dec 11, 2007 | -2.53% |
| Oct 31, 2007 | +1.20% |
| Sep 18, 2007 | +2.92% |
| Aug 7, 2007 | +0.62% |
| Jun 28, 2007 | -0.04% |
| May 9, 2007 | +0.32% |
| Mar 21, 2007 | +1.71% |
| Jan 31, 2007 | +0.66% |
| Dec 12, 2006 | -0.10% |
| Oct 25, 2006 | +0.35% |
| Sep 20, 2006 | +0.52% |
| Aug 8, 2006 | -0.34% |
| Jun 29, 2006 | +2.16% |
| May 10, 2006 | -0.17% |
| Mar 28, 2006 | -0.64% |
| Jan 31, 2006 | -0.40% |
| Dec 13, 2005 | +0.56% |
| Nov 1, 2005 | -0.35% |
| Sep 20, 2005 | -0.79% |
| Aug 9, 2005 | +0.67% |
| Jun 30, 2005 | -0.71% |
| May 3, 2005 | -0.09% |
| Mar 22, 2005 | -1.02% |
| Feb 2, 2005 | +0.32% |
| Dec 14, 2004 | +0.39% |
| Nov 10, 2004 | -0.10% |
| Sep 21, 2004 | +0.63% |
| Aug 10, 2004 | +1.30% |
| Jun 30, 2004 | +0.41% |
| May 4, 2004 | +0.18% |
| Mar 16, 2004 | +0.56% |
| Jan 28, 2004 | -1.36% |
| Dec 9, 2003 | -0.85% |
| Oct 28, 2003 | +1.52% |
| Sep 16, 2003 | +1.43% |
| Aug 12, 2003 | +1.00% |
| Jun 25, 2003 | -0.83% |
| May 6, 2003 | +0.85% |
| Mar 18, 2003 | +0.42% |
| Jan 29, 2003 | +0.68% |
| Dec 10, 2002 | +1.40% |
| Nov 6, 2002 | +0.91% |
| Sep 24, 2002 | -1.73% |
| Aug 13, 2002 | -2.17% |
| Jun 26, 2002 | -0.27% |
| May 7, 2002 | -0.30% |
| Mar 19, 2002 | +0.41% |
| Jan 30, 2002 | +1.17% |
| Dec 11, 2001 | -0.28% |
| Nov 6, 2001 | +1.45% |
| Oct 2, 2001 | +1.23% |
| Aug 21, 2001 | -1.21% |
| Jun 27, 2001 | -0.47% |
| May 15, 2001 | +0.04% |
| Mar 20, 2001 | -2.41% |
| Jan 31, 2001 | -0.56% |
| Dec 19, 2000 | -1.30% |
| Nov 15, 2000 | +0.50% |
| Oct 3, 2000 | -0.68% |
| Aug 22, 2000 | -0.09% |
| Jun 28, 2000 | +0.29% |
| May 16, 2000 | +0.94% |
| Mar 21, 2000 | +2.56% |
| Feb 2, 2000 | -0.01% |
| Dec 21, 1999 | +1.08% |
| Nov 16, 1999 | +1.82% |
| Oct 5, 1999 | -0.25% |
| Aug 24, 1999 | +0.24% |
| Jun 30, 1999 | +1.57% |
| May 18, 1999 | -0.46% |
| Mar 30, 1999 | -0.72% |
| Feb 3, 1999 | +0.80% |
| Dec 22, 1998 | +0.06% |
| Nov 17, 1998 | +0.30% |
| Sep 29, 1998 | +0.03% |
| Aug 18, 1998 | +1.62% |
| Jul 1, 1998 | +1.30% |
| May 19, 1998 | +0.33% |
| Mar 31, 1998 | +0.75% |
| Feb 4, 1998 | +0.09% |
| Dec 16, 1997 | +0.48% |
| Nov 12, 1997 | -1.93% |
| Sep 30, 1997 | -0.64% |
| Aug 19, 1997 | +1.48% |
| Jul 2, 1997 | +1.46% |
| May 20, 1997 | +1.01% |
| Mar 25, 1997 | -0.23% |
| Feb 5, 1997 | -1.41% |
| Dec 17, 1996 | +0.70% |
| Nov 13, 1996 | +0.22% |
| Sep 24, 1996 | -0.13% |
| Aug 20, 1996 | -0.13% |
| Jul 3, 1996 | -0.18% |
| May 21, 1996 | -0.06% |
| Mar 26, 1996 | +0.45% |
| Jan 31, 1996 | +0.93% |
| Dec 19, 1995 | +0.84% |
| Nov 15, 1995 | +0.79% |
| Sep 26, 1995 | -0.07% |
| Aug 22, 1995 | +0.25% |
| Jul 6, 1995 | +1.23% |
| May 23, 1995 | +0.94% |
| Mar 28, 1995 | +0.14% |
| Feb 1, 1995 | 0.00% |
| Dec 20, 1994 | -0.18% |
| Nov 15, 1994 | -0.22% |
| Sep 27, 1994 | +0.27% |
| Aug 16, 1994 | +0.82% |
| Jul 6, 1994 | -0.05% |
| May 17, 1994 | +1.10% |
| Mar 22, 1994 | +0.06% |
| Feb 4, 1994 | -2.27% |
SquawkFlow's computation on Oct 17, 2026: S&P 500 index closes from Cboe, scheduled Fed decision days from the Federal Reserve Board, each move from the prior session's close to the event day's close. Every scheduled Fed decision day in the span is listed below; none falls within 20 sessions of another. The median comparison word follows a permutation check (10,000 random same-size samples). History, not a forecast. Dates: Federal Reserve Board. Closes: Cboe.
Related
- Market calendar: CPI, FOMC, OPEX and VIX dates
- Election week 2026 event clock
- How the Fed moves markets
Nothing here is advice.