Logged before the open. Graded after the close.

SPX and QQQ forecasts are written down before the 9:30 AM ET open and graded after the close. Misses stay on the page next to the hits, and nothing is edited afterward.

As of Nov 5, 4:57 PM PT.

Information only. Not investment advice. SquawkFlow does not trade these forecasts. Forecasts are often wrong.

How it works

• Forecasts are logged each trading morning before the open, and each one carries its timestamp.
• Every forecast is written once to an append-only ledger. There is no edit and no delete.
• Grading runs automatically after the close, against the same daily bar for every forecast.
• Each forecast shows the model version that made it. A new version replaces the live one only if it does better on data it was not tuned on, and only for later sessions. Earlier forecasts keep their version and are never regraded.

Each family below is a simple, stated rule applied to the prior close and our own morning levels, including the Flip Line and the Pin Zone. The rule that grades it is written beside it. A rule can be retired when its record does not hold up.

How each family is graded

• Range (range_v1)
  A hit when the whole session, high and low, stays inside the 80% band built from the prior close and recent volatility.
• Dealer regime (regime_v1)
  Positive predicts a calm session and negative predicts a wider one. Calm means the day's high to low range is within 1.6 times the expected daily move. Neutral is shown but not scored.
• Close vs Flip Line (flipside_v1)
  A hit when the close lands on the same side of the Flip Line as the prior close. A close on the line is not scored. This is a persistence baseline.
• Pin Zone (pin_v1)
  A hit when the close lands inside the Pin Zone, 0.15% either side of the center strike.

Today's forecasts, Thu, Nov 5

• SPX RangeMiss

  Stays inside 7,610.00 to 7,768.06

  High 7,681.29, low 7,350.35, close 7,353.73: left the band

  Logged Nov 5, 6:05 AM PT. Graded Nov 5, 2:45 PM PT. Model range_v1

• SPX Dealer regimeMiss

  Positive regime: calm session

  Range 330.94 points against a calm limit of 98.66 points: not calm

  Logged Nov 5, 6:05 AM PT. Graded Nov 5, 2:45 PM PT. Model regime_v1

• SPX Close vs Flip LineMiss

  Closes above the Flip Line at 7,652.87

  Closed at 7,353.73, below the line

  Logged Nov 5, 6:05 AM PT. Graded Nov 5, 2:45 PM PT. Model flipside_v1

• SPX Pin ZoneMiss

  Closes inside the Pin Zone 7,738.38 to 7,761.62

  Closed at 7,353.73, outside the zone, 396.27 points from center

  Logged Nov 5, 6:05 AM PT. Graded Nov 5, 2:45 PM PT. Model pin_v1

• QQQ RangeMiss

  Stays inside 679.62 to 704.50

  High 683.64, low 647.05, close 647.05: left the band

  Logged Nov 5, 6:05 AM PT. Graded Nov 5, 2:45 PM PT. Model range_v1

• QQQ Dealer regimeHit

  Negative regime: wider-range session

  Range 36.59 points against a calm limit of 15.53 points: not calm

  Logged Nov 5, 6:05 AM PT. Graded Nov 5, 2:45 PM PT. Model regime_v1

• QQQ Close vs Flip LineNo forecast

  No forecast for this family: the input it needs had no reading before the open.

  Model flipside_v1

• QQQ Pin ZoneNo forecast

  No forecast for this family: the input it needs had no reading before the open.

  Model pin_v1

Record by family

• SPX RangeModel range_v1

  1 of 4 graded. Hit rate 25%

  Small sample

• SPX Dealer regimeModel regime_v1

  1 of 4 graded. Hit rate 25%

  Small sample

• SPX Close vs Flip LineModel flipside_v1

  2 of 4 graded. Hit rate 50%

  Small sample

• SPX Pin ZoneModel pin_v1

  0 of 3 graded. Hit rate 0%

  1 with no forecast

  Small sample

• QQQ RangeModel range_v1

  2 of 4 graded. Hit rate 50%

  Small sample

• QQQ Dealer regimeModel regime_v1

  2 of 4 graded. Hit rate 50%

  Small sample

• QQQ Close vs Flip LineModel flipside_v1

  No graded forecasts yet

  4 with no forecast

  Small sample

• QQQ Pin ZoneModel pin_v1

  0 of 3 graded. Hit rate 0%

  1 with no forecast

  Small sample

Graded history, 20 graded

Ledger fingerprint

This is a fingerprint of the whole ledger. Save it and compare it later: anyone can check we never edited a past forecast. Changing any earlier row changes every fingerprint after it.

Fingerprints use Eastern calendar dates. A day's fingerprint is listed only after that date ends at midnight ET and every forecast for that session has a grade. Today's fingerprint stays provisional until midnight ET, even if grading is complete.

• Wed, Nov 4, end of Eastern calendar day
  a8c248511464c9e1df82bfb21a9904df2a93660185abb7b9546c5a29a1584150
• Tue, Nov 3, end of Eastern calendar day
  af19a84119f59cda075321910ec3255e1fc07e8a8f015e6346a3b9594164eab2
• Mon, Nov 2, end of Eastern calendar day
  502c82b70aecf608c3d890f7c6af3c253e442e1ed68629aa91feb83c52ef0895

Information only. Not investment advice. SquawkFlow does not trade these forecasts. Forecasts are often wrong.