Counting episodes, not days
Spikes bunch together, so the count of episodes is smaller: keeping a spike only when it came at least 20 sessions after the last one kept (earliest kept) leaves 80 of the 131. The numbers in the next section use only those 80.
What the VIX did next
5 sessions later, across 79 counted spikes, the VIX close was below the spike-day close in 57 of 79 (72.2%). Median change -10.64%, range -46.67% to +169.65%; median VIX level 20.70, range 10.02 to 69.65. 1 counted spike is too recent for a 5-session window and is left out.
Base rate, every session in the file (9,291 sessions with a 5-session window): median 5-session VIX change -0.73%, lower in 52.7% of them, range -46.67% to +212.90%.
20 sessions later, across 79 counted spikes, the VIX close was below the spike-day close in 62 of 79 (78.5%). Median change -15.45%, range -47.24% to +73.47%; median VIX level 18.98, range 10.90 to 66.46. 1 counted spike is too recent for a 20-session window and is left out.
Base rate, every session in the file (9,276 sessions with a 20-session window): median 20-session VIX change -1.83%, lower in 54.1% of them, range -59.68% to +504.46%.
Every spike day, newest first
All 131 sessions. Counted marks the 80 kept after de-clustering. Later columns show the VIX close and its change from the spike-day close.
| Date | Prior close | Close | Change | Counted | 5 sessions later | 20 sessions later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 16.46 | 19.99 | +21.45% | yes | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-06-05 | 15.40 | 21.51 | +39.68% | yes | 17.68 (-17.81%) | 15.81 (-26.50%) |
| 2026-03-06 | 23.75 | 29.49 | +24.17% | yes | 27.19 (-7.80%) | 24.17 (-18.04%) |
| 2025-10-16 | 20.64 | 25.31 | +22.63% | no | 17.30 (-31.65%) | 20.00 (-20.98%) |
| 2025-10-10 | 16.43 | 21.66 | +31.83% | yes | 20.78 (-4.06%) | 19.08 (-11.91%) |
| 2025-08-01 | 16.72 | 20.38 | +21.89% | yes | 15.15 (-25.66%) | 15.36 (-24.63%) |
| 2025-04-10 | 33.62 | 40.72 | +21.12% | no | 29.65 (-27.19%) | 21.90 (-46.22%) |
| 2025-04-04 | 30.02 | 45.31 | +50.93% | no | 37.56 (-17.10%) | 23.64 (-47.83%) |
| 2025-04-03 | 21.51 | 30.02 | +39.56% | yes | 40.72 (+35.64%) | 22.68 (-24.45%) |
| 2025-01-27 | 14.85 | 17.90 | +20.54% | yes | 18.62 (+4.02%) | 18.98 (+6.03%) |
| 2024-12-18 | 15.87 | 27.62 | +74.04% | yes | 14.73 (-46.67%) | 15.97 (-42.18%) |
| 2024-09-03 | 15.55 | 20.72 | +33.25% | yes | 19.08 (-7.92%) | 19.26 (-7.05%) |
| 2024-08-05 | 23.39 | 38.57 | +64.90% | no | 20.71 (-46.31%) | 15.55 (-59.68%) |
| 2024-08-02 | 18.59 | 23.39 | +25.82% | no | 20.37 (-12.91%) | 15.00 (-35.87%) |
| 2024-07-24 | 14.72 | 18.04 | +22.55% | yes | 16.36 (-9.31%) | 16.27 (-9.81%) |
| 2022-06-13 | 27.75 | 34.02 | +22.59% | yes | 31.03 (-8.79%) | 26.17 (-23.07%) |
| 2022-05-05 | 25.42 | 31.20 | +22.74% | no | 31.77 (+1.83%) | 24.72 (-20.77%) |
| 2022-04-26 | 27.02 | 33.52 | +24.06% | no | 29.25 (-12.74%) | 29.45 (-12.14%) |
| 2022-04-22 | 22.68 | 28.21 | +24.38% | yes | 33.40 (+18.40%) | 29.43 (+4.32%) |
| 2021-11-26 | 18.58 | 28.62 | +54.04% | yes | 30.67 (+7.16%) | 17.68 (-38.23%) |
| 2021-09-28 | 18.76 | 23.25 | +23.93% | no | 21.30 (-8.39%) | 15.98 (-31.27%) |
| 2021-09-20 | 20.81 | 25.71 | +23.55% | yes | 18.76 (-27.03%) | 16.31 (-36.56%) |
| 2021-08-18 | 17.91 | 21.57 | +20.44% | yes | 16.79 (-22.16%) | 18.69 (-13.35%) |
| 2021-07-19 | 18.45 | 22.50 | +21.95% | yes | 17.58 (-21.87%) | 16.12 (-28.36%) |
| 2021-05-12 | 21.84 | 27.59 | +26.33% | yes | 22.18 (-19.61%) | 16.10 (-41.65%) |
| 2021-02-25 | 21.34 | 28.89 | +35.38% | yes | 28.57 (-1.11%) | 19.81 (-31.43%) |
| 2021-01-27 | 23.02 | 37.21 | +61.64% | yes | 22.91 (-38.43%) | 28.89 (-22.36%) |
| 2020-10-28 | 33.35 | 40.28 | +20.78% | yes | 29.57 (-26.59%) | 21.25 (-47.24%) |
| 2020-09-03 | 26.57 | 33.60 | +26.46% | yes | 26.87 (-20.03%) | 27.63 (-17.77%) |
| 2020-06-11 | 27.57 | 40.79 | +47.95% | yes | 32.94 (-19.24%) | 27.29 (-33.10%) |
| 2020-03-16 | 57.83 | 82.69 | +42.99% | no | 61.59 (-25.52%) | 37.76 (-54.34%) |
| 2020-03-12 | 53.90 | 75.47 | +40.02% | no | 72.00 (-4.60%) | 41.67 (-44.79%) |
| 2020-03-09 | 41.94 | 54.46 | +29.85% | no | 82.69 (+51.84%) | 45.24 (-16.93%) |
| 2020-03-05 | 31.99 | 39.62 | +23.85% | no | 75.47 (+90.48%) | 50.91 (+28.50%) |
| 2020-02-27 | 27.56 | 39.16 | +42.09% | yes | 39.62 (+1.17%) | 61.00 (+55.77%) |
| 2020-02-24 | 17.08 | 25.03 | +46.55% | no | 33.42 (+33.52%) | 61.59 (+146.06%) |
| 2020-01-31 | 15.49 | 18.84 | +21.63% | no | 15.47 (-17.89%) | 33.42 (+77.39%) |
| 2020-01-27 | 14.56 | 18.23 | +25.21% | yes | 17.97 (-1.43%) | 27.85 (+52.77%) |
| 2019-08-14 | 17.52 | 22.10 | +26.14% | no | 15.80 (-28.51%) | 14.22 (-35.66%) |
| 2019-08-05 | 17.61 | 24.59 | +39.64% | yes | 21.09 (-14.23%) | 19.66 (-20.05%) |
| 2019-05-13 | 16.04 | 20.55 | +28.12% | no | 16.31 (-20.63%) | 15.99 (-22.19%) |
| 2019-05-07 | 15.44 | 19.32 | +25.13% | yes | 18.06 (-6.52%) | 16.09 (-16.72%) |
| 2019-03-22 | 13.63 | 16.48 | +20.91% | yes | 13.71 (-16.81%) | 12.42 (-24.64%) |
| 2018-12-04 | 16.44 | 20.74 | +26.16% | yes | 21.46 (+3.47%) | 21.38 (+3.09%) |
| 2018-10-24 | 20.71 | 25.23 | +21.83% | no | 21.23 (-15.85%) | 20.80 (-17.56%) |
| 2018-10-10 | 15.95 | 22.96 | +43.95% | no | 17.40 (-24.22%) | 16.36 (-28.75%) |
| 2018-10-04 | 11.61 | 14.22 | +22.48% | yes | 24.98 (+75.67%) | 19.34 (+36.01%) |
| 2018-06-25 | 13.77 | 17.33 | +25.85% | no | 15.60 (-9.98%) | 12.41 (-28.39%) |
| 2018-05-29 | 13.22 | 17.02 | +28.74% | yes | 12.40 (-27.14%) | 15.92 (-6.46%) |
| 2018-03-22 | 17.86 | 23.34 | +30.68% | no | 19.97 (-14.44%) | 16.88 (-27.68%) |
| 2018-03-19 | 15.80 | 19.02 | +20.38% | yes | 21.03 (+10.57%) | 15.25 (-19.82%) |
| 2018-02-08 | 27.73 | 33.46 | +20.66% | no | 19.13 (-42.83%) | 14.64 (-56.25%) |
| 2018-02-05 | 17.31 | 37.32 | +115.60% | no | 25.61 (-31.38%) | 18.36 (-50.80%) |
| 2018-02-02 | 13.47 | 17.31 | +28.51% | no | 29.06 (+67.88%) | 18.73 (+8.20%) |
| 2018-01-29 | 11.08 | 13.84 | +24.91% | yes | 37.32 (+169.65%) | 18.59 (+34.32%) |
| 2017-09-05 | 10.13 | 12.23 | +20.73% | no | 10.58 (-13.49%) | 9.51 (-22.24%) |
| 2017-08-17 | 11.74 | 15.55 | +32.45% | no | 12.23 (-21.35%) | 10.17 (-34.60%) |
| 2017-08-10 | 11.11 | 16.04 | +44.37% | yes | 15.55 (-3.05%) | 12.12 (-24.44%) |
| 2017-05-17 | 10.65 | 15.59 | +46.38% | yes | 10.02 (-35.73%) | 10.90 (-30.08%) |
| 2016-09-09 | 12.51 | 17.50 | +39.89% | yes | 15.37 (-12.17%) | 13.48 (-22.97%) |
| 2016-06-24 | 17.25 | 25.76 | +49.33% | no | 14.77 (-42.66%) | 12.87 (-50.04%) |
| 2016-06-13 | 17.03 | 20.97 | +23.14% | yes | 18.37 (-12.40%) | 13.55 (-35.38%) |
| 2016-01-07 | 20.59 | 24.99 | +21.37% | no | 23.95 (-4.16%) | 23.38 (-6.44%) |
| 2015-12-11 | 19.34 | 24.39 | +26.11% | yes | 20.70 (-15.13%) | 22.47 (-7.87%) |
| 2015-08-24 | 28.03 | 40.74 | +45.34% | no | 28.43 (-30.22%) | 22.44 (-44.92%) |
| 2015-08-21 | 19.14 | 28.03 | +46.45% | no | 26.05 (-7.06%) | 20.14 (-28.15%) |
| 2015-08-20 | 15.25 | 19.14 | +25.51% | yes | 26.10 (+36.36%) | 22.28 (+16.41%) |
| 2015-07-08 | 16.09 | 19.66 | +22.19% | no | 13.23 (-32.71%) | 12.51 (-36.37%) |
| 2015-06-29 | 14.02 | 18.85 | +34.45% | yes | 16.09 (-14.64%) | 13.44 (-28.70%) |
| 2014-12-31 | 15.92 | 19.20 | +20.60% | no | 17.01 (-11.41%) | 20.97 (+9.22%) |
| 2014-12-10 | 14.89 | 18.53 | +24.45% | no | 19.44 (+4.91%) | 17.55 (-5.29%) |
| 2014-12-08 | 11.82 | 14.21 | +20.22% | yes | 20.42 (+43.70%) | 19.31 (+35.89%) |
| 2014-10-09 | 15.11 | 18.76 | +24.16% | yes | 25.20 (+34.33%) | 13.67 (-27.13%) |
| 2014-07-31 | 13.33 | 16.95 | +27.16% | no | 16.66 (-1.71%) | 12.05 (-28.91%) |
| 2014-07-17 | 11.00 | 14.54 | +32.18% | yes | 11.84 (-18.57%) | 12.42 (-14.58%) |
| 2014-01-24 | 13.77 | 18.14 | +31.74% | yes | 18.41 (+1.49%) | 14.23 (-21.55%) |
| 2013-06-20 | 16.64 | 20.49 | +23.14% | yes | 16.86 (-17.72%) | 12.54 (-38.80%) |
| 2013-04-15 | 12.06 | 17.27 | +43.20% | yes | 14.39 (-16.68%) | 12.55 (-27.33%) |
| 2013-02-25 | 14.17 | 18.99 | +34.02% | yes | 14.01 (-26.22%) | 13.74 (-27.65%) |
| 2011-11-09 | 27.48 | 36.16 | +31.59% | no | 33.51 (-7.33%) | 30.59 (-15.40%) |
| 2011-10-31 | 24.53 | 29.96 | +22.14% | yes | 29.85 (-0.37%) | 30.64 (+2.27%) |
| 2011-08-18 | 31.58 | 42.67 | +35.12% | no | 39.76 (-6.82%) | 30.98 (-27.40%) |
| 2011-08-10 | 35.06 | 42.99 | +22.62% | no | 31.58 (-26.54%) | 34.32 (-20.17%) |
| 2011-08-08 | 32.00 | 48.00 | +50.00% | no | 31.87 (-33.60%) | 37.00 (-22.92%) |
| 2011-08-04 | 23.38 | 31.66 | +35.41% | yes | 39.00 (+23.18%) | 31.82 (+0.51%) |
| 2011-03-16 | 24.32 | 29.40 | +20.89% | yes | 19.17 (-34.80%) | 16.92 (-42.45%) |
| 2011-02-22 | 16.43 | 20.80 | +26.60% | no | 21.01 (+1.01%) | 20.21 (-2.84%) |
| 2011-01-28 | 16.15 | 20.04 | +24.09% | yes | 15.93 (-20.51%) | 18.35 (-8.43%) |
| 2010-06-04 | 29.46 | 35.48 | +20.43% | yes | 28.79 (-18.86%) | 30.12 (-15.11%) |
| 2010-05-20 | 35.32 | 45.79 | +29.64% | no | 29.68 (-35.18%) | 23.95 (-47.70%) |
| 2010-05-07 | 32.80 | 40.95 | +24.85% | no | 31.24 (-23.71%) | 36.57 (-10.70%) |
| 2010-05-06 | 24.91 | 32.80 | +31.67% | no | 26.68 (-18.66%) | 35.48 (+8.17%) |
| 2010-04-27 | 17.47 | 22.81 | +30.57% | yes | 23.84 (+4.52%) | 34.61 (+51.73%) |
| 2010-02-04 | 21.60 | 26.08 | +20.74% | no | 23.96 (-8.13%) | 17.42 (-33.21%) |
| 2010-01-22 | 22.27 | 27.31 | +22.63% | yes | 24.62 (-9.85%) | 19.94 (-26.99%) |
| 2009-11-27 | 20.48 | 24.85 | +21.34% | no | 21.25 (-14.49%) | 19.93 (-19.80%) |
| 2009-10-30 | 24.76 | 30.69 | +23.95% | yes | 24.19 (-21.18%) | 24.51 (-20.14%) |
| 2009-01-20 | 46.11 | 56.65 | +22.86% | yes | 42.25 (-25.42%) | 48.46 (-14.46%) |
| 2008-12-01 | 55.84 | 68.51 | +22.69% | yes | 58.49 (-14.63%) | 41.63 (-39.24%) |
| 2008-10-22 | 53.11 | 69.65 | +31.14% | no | 69.96 (+0.45%) | 74.26 (+6.62%) |
| 2008-10-15 | 55.13 | 69.25 | +25.61% | yes | 69.65 (+0.58%) | 66.46 (-4.03%) |
| 2008-09-29 | 34.74 | 46.72 | +34.48% | no | 52.05 (+11.41%) | 80.06 (+71.36%) |
| 2008-09-15 | 25.66 | 31.70 | +23.54% | yes | 33.85 (+6.78%) | 54.99 (+73.47%) |
| 2008-06-06 | 18.63 | 23.56 | +26.46% | yes | 21.22 (-9.93%) | 25.78 (+9.42%) |
| 2007-11-07 | 21.39 | 26.49 | +23.84% | no | 25.94 (-2.08%) | 20.96 (-20.88%) |
| 2007-11-01 | 18.53 | 23.21 | +25.26% | no | 26.16 (+12.71%) | 22.87 (-1.46%) |
| 2007-10-19 | 18.50 | 22.96 | +24.11% | yes | 19.56 (-14.81%) | 25.49 (+11.02%) |
| 2007-08-09 | 21.45 | 26.48 | +23.45% | yes | 30.83 (+16.43%) | 26.23 (-0.94%) |
| 2007-03-13 | 13.99 | 18.13 | +29.59% | no | 13.27 (-26.81%) | 13.49 (-25.59%) |
| 2007-02-27 | 11.15 | 18.31 | +64.22% | yes | 15.96 (-12.83%) | 13.48 (-26.38%) |
| 2006-07-13 | 14.49 | 17.79 | +22.77% | yes | 16.21 (-8.88%) | 14.46 (-18.72%) |
| 2006-05-30 | 14.26 | 18.66 | +30.86% | no | 17.34 (-7.07%) | 16.40 (-12.11%) |
| 2006-05-17 | 13.35 | 16.26 | +21.80% | yes | 17.36 (+6.77%) | 15.90 (-2.21%) |
| 2006-01-20 | 11.98 | 14.56 | +21.54% | yes | 11.97 (-17.79%) | 12.01 (-17.51%) |
| 2005-04-15 | 14.53 | 17.74 | +22.09% | yes | 15.38 (-13.30%) | 16.32 (-8.00%) |
| 2002-09-03 | 32.64 | 39.97 | +22.46% | yes | 35.08 (-12.23%) | 34.12 (-14.64%) |
| 2001-09-17 | 31.84 | 41.76 | +31.16% | yes | 37.75 (-9.60%) | 35.31 (-15.45%) |
| 1998-08-27 | 31.14 | 38.55 | +23.80% | yes | 41.43 (+7.47%) | 34.55 (-10.38%) |
| 1997-10-27 | 23.17 | 31.12 | +34.31% | yes | 32.09 (+3.12%) | 29.80 (-4.24%) |
| 1996-03-08 | 16.49 | 20.70 | +25.53% | yes | 16.54 (-20.10%) | 18.72 (-9.57%) |
| 1995-12-18 | 11.44 | 14.55 | +27.19% | yes | 11.49 (-21.03%) | 14.25 (-2.06%) |
| 1994-02-04 | 10.75 | 15.25 | +41.86% | yes | 14.46 (-5.18%) | 14.26 (-6.49%) |
| 1993-07-06 | 11.33 | 13.87 | +22.42% | yes | 11.02 (-20.55%) | 11.49 (-17.16%) |
| 1993-02-16 | 12.38 | 15.76 | +27.30% | yes | 15.04 (-4.57%) | 14.51 (-7.93%) |
| 1991-11-15 | 13.96 | 21.18 | +51.72% | yes | 21.20 (+0.09%) | 17.62 (-16.81%) |
| 1991-08-19 | 16.01 | 21.19 | +32.35% | yes | 14.81 (-30.11%) | 17.68 (-16.56%) |
| 1990-08-06 | 28.74 | 35.91 | +24.95% | no | 25.74 (-28.32%) | 29.58 (-17.63%) |
| 1990-08-03 | 20.43 | 28.74 | +40.68% | no | 25.75 (-10.40%) | 29.90 (+4.04%) |
| 1990-07-23 | 15.63 | 23.68 | +51.50% | yes | 21.16 (-10.64%) | 26.46 (+11.74%) |
| 1990-06-22 | 14.72 | 19.36 | +31.52% | yes | 15.50 (-19.94%) | 23.68 (+22.31%) |
| 1990-01-12 | 20.05 | 24.64 | +22.89% | yes | 22.50 (-8.69%) | 23.69 (-3.86%) |
Method
Source: Cboe's daily VIX history file (https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/daily_prices/VIX_History.csv), official daily closes from Jan 2, 1990 through Oct 16, 2026, 9,296 sessions. This page was computed on Oct 18, 2026.
A spike day is a session whose VIX close was at least 20% above the close of the session before it. When markets were shut (for example the week of September 11, 2001), the change is measured from the last session before the closure, since the file has no rows for closed days.
What followed is the VIX close 5 and 20 sessions after the spike day, and its change from the spike-day close. A spike whose window runs past the last row in the file has no number for that window and drops out of that window's count.
The base rate is the same 5- and 20-session change measured from every session in the file, spike or not, so the two can be read side by side.
Cboe publishes the series from 1990; the current method dates from 2003. 16 of the 131 spike days here are dated before 2003.
Read the declines with care. Later spikes fall inside 14 of 79 5-session windows and 34 of 79 20-session windows of the counted spikes, so those windows include a second jump. After a 20% jump the VIX starts from a raised level, so part of any later decline is mechanical. Spot VIX itself cannot be traded.
This page describes past closes only. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Plain text: /learn/vix-spike-days.md.
Related: VIX term structure · What the VIX measures · Rare Day · Learn