2026-11-04 (range_v1): Outside
Logged ; graded .
Stays inside 672.87 to 697.92. High 701.45, low 687.90, close 691.95: left the band
OPTIONS-IMPLIED OUTLOOK
QQQ outlook: 1-week, 1-month and 3-month ranges
A range is not a target. These options-implied ranges are risk-neutral measures of movement, not forecasts.
For a question about QQQ in three months, listed options describe a range of movement. Each reading below has its own date and expiration.
1 week (to 2026-11-12, 7 days)
$608.59 to $686.06
±5.98% of the forward price ($647.33)
One standard deviation
As of 2026-11-05 16:14 ET. 7 calendar days to the 2026-11-12 close.
At-the-money straddle cross-check: $31.83. This is the combined price of a call and put at the same strike, shown as a separate check on the size of the move.
1 month (to 2026-12-11, 36 days)
$583.18 to $715.56
±10.19% of the forward price ($649.37)
One standard deviation
As of 2026-11-05 16:14 ET. 36 calendar days to the 2026-12-11 close.
At-the-money straddle cross-check: $52.80. This is the combined price of a call and put at the same strike, shown as a separate check on the size of the move.
3 months (to 2027-01-29, 85 days)
$564.58 to $739.92
±13.44% of the forward price ($652.25)
One standard deviation
As of 2026-11-05 16:14 ET. 85 calendar days to the 2027-01-29 close.
At-the-money straddle cross-check: $69.88. This is the combined price of a call and put at the same strike, shown as a separate check on the size of the move.
Reading the ranges
One standard deviation comes from at-the-money implied volatility multiplied by the square root of time and the forward price. The forward is the price implied by call and put quotes for that expiration. The dollar range is centered on that forward, rather than the last stock price.
Dates run from the reading time. The 1-week and 1-month rows use the first listed expiration on or after 7 and 30 calendar days, within 7 and 14 further days respectively. The 3-month row uses the last listed expiration from 60 through 90 calendar days. Every row names the actual close and day count. No range is extended beyond the listed chain or 90 days.
Option prices include a premium for risk, so these ranges are not a promise of where a stock closes. The price can finish outside the range. This symmetric range uses at-the-money prices; it does not describe the full shape of possible outcomes.
Scored daily record
This is our separate daily forecast record, written once before the open and publicly scored after the close. It scores whether the whole session, high and low, stayed inside an 80% band built from the prior close and recent volatility. It does not score the options-implied horizon ranges above.
Record as of .
range_v1: 2 of 4 graded sessions stayed inside the daily band (N=4). 95% Wilson interval: 15.0% to 85.0%. Small sample, under 10 graded sessions. 0 awaiting grade, 0 not scored, 0 skipped.
Up to 25 recent graded sessions are shown here. The public forecast record carries the full history.
2026-11-03 (range_v1): Inside
Logged ; graded .
Stays inside 668.45 to 693.97. High 688.69, low 683.18, close 685.28: stayed inside the band
2026-11-02 (range_v1): Inside
Logged ; graded .
Stays inside 677.62 to 703.60. High 699.43, low 680.33, close 681.09: stayed inside the band
Ledger fingerprint: 5dcdc88ed1670717b50c2938a3437a72444814f1575c187e22222e921f9187ac